INFORMED SOURCES e-Preview April 2014
I hope there’s something for everyone in this month’s Informed Sources. Items include an intriguing development in Network Rail’s Traffic Management System (TMS) project and I get to play with the spurned British contender. For those who like tables of future rolling stock requirements I cover the Tube and LOROL. Political wonks can read about how the Department for Transport is restructuring and I get a rap over the knuckles from the disability lobby.
TMS – signs of confusion
Hands-on with DeltaRail’s TMS solution.
London Underground’s 20 year rolling stock programme
DfT to have Rail Executive until election
Wanted (quite) a few good men
Wheelchairs have priority over delay minutes
More on growth
Informed Sources cut its teeth reporting on the ill-fated Advanced Passenger Train (APT). That taught me to keep a running check on past predictions against current reality.
In the case of Network Rail’s Traffic Management System (TNS) programme some divergence is emerging. Nothing seriously untoward, you understand, but hints of a project losing its way.
Implementation of TMS is being staged. First, three contractors were invited to produce demonstration offices running a simulation of the Leeds area. I’ve seen the Hitachi and Thales offerings.
It had been understood that stage 2 would see each contractor awarded a pilot scheme in February this year. The general expectation was that Hitachi would get Romford, Signalling Solutions, East Midlands, and Thales Cardiff.
But, in February, a NR presentation at an Australian conference described the Romford and Cardiff pilot schemes in detail while omitting any mention of East Midlands. So I asked the ever-helpful NR press office whether this meant that they had dropped one of the contractors.
I got this holding reply. ‘We will be making an announcement regarding the first rollout of TM in the coming weeks – I appreciate you’ve asked a specific question but I’m afraid the contract award process means we won’t be able to comment further until then’. I expect the announcement to say that Thales has been awarded both the Romford and Cardiff pilots. And, no, you couldn’t make it up.
Dissent
Of course, TMS also plays to a second of this column’s tropes – supporting British industry. In this case the company is DeltaRail of Derby, the direct descendent of BR Research – creators, among many other things, of SSI and the Integrated Electronic Control Centre (IECC) with its Automatic Route Setting (ARS).
DeltaRail’s Chief Executive Anna Matthews has been fighting the company’s exclusion from the TMS programme. She argues that, as it stands, the TMS programme ‘will burden the UK railway with near obsolete 1990s technology which will significantly stifle innovation, limit competition through vendor lock-in and impact future procurement decisions on the railway - concerns mirrored in the Government ICT Strategy’.
NR’s official view of DeltaRail, as expressed in a letter from then Chief Executive David Higgins to the Transport Select Committee, is dismissive. According to Sir David, ‘As I said on 14 October last year and as it still stands today, (DeltaRail) does not have a traffic management system at all, let alone one that has been tried and tested to the level of those companies who were successful in the tendering process’. Ouch!
So I invited myself to Derby to see just what DeltaRail had to offer to back up its claims. For background, NR now has DeltaRail’s second-generation IECC Scalable workstations at the Didcot Thames Valley Signalling Centre (TVSC) controlling the GWML from Paddington through to the fringe with Slough PSB. Between now and Easter 2015, further IECC Scalable workstations at TVSC are scheduled to take over control to Bristol and Oxford.
Didcot is, of course, one of NR’s 12 Route Operating Centres (ROC). With Scalable, plus Delta Rail’s Enhanced ARS, the only ARS approved by NR, plus the company’s Remote Interlocking Interface (RIF), also the only one in service on the Network, TVSC will be a ROC in all but name before TMS arrives.
What Scalable doesn’t have in service is train graphing and other operating tools TMS provides. But at Derby I was surprised to find what was, effectively, a fourth TMS demonstration office running part of the Great Western Main Line.
When all signalling is controlled from the ROCs, total savings are forecast at £250 million a year. But, scaling off a NR graph breaking down the eventual savings, it looks as though 80% of the benefits come from consolidating the 800 odd signalling locations into the 12 ROCs.
DeltaRail argues that ROC consolidation is not dependent on the TMS programme. As the TVSC shows, consolidation could start today using the proven Scalable/Enhanced ARS/RIF technology, with 80% of the benefits achieved sooner and faster. Train graphing and the other TMS adjuncts would be the icing on the cake, and since IECC Scalable has an open architecture, could use international best-in-class systems.
DeltaRail’s TMS solution.
Meanwhile, in the Demonstration office at Derby, all the TMS facilities were there, including the obligatory interactive train graph, possessions tool, off-line planning, and conflict management software.
Much is made of TMS bringing automation to the railway. DeltaRail, drawing on 25 years’ experience with IECC and ARS argue that where their kit is in operation, NR is already running some of the most automated railway networks in the world.
So where the demonstration team on the Thales office made much of TMS as a tool to augment the signaller’s skills, DeltaRail expects that Enhanced ARS plus the company’s latest Timetable Processing (TTP) software will handle the majority of potential pathing conflicts before they can happen.
Anything Enhanced ARS couldn’t handle would be picked up by the Always-on Conflict Management and, in most cases, resolved automatically by the rules engine. This would leave only a small number of incidents for manual resolution.
Hands on
Obviously, watching an automated system running the railway by itself would not make much of an article, so I was given a demonstration of what the TMS can do.
If the Editor has been generous with the space, there should be screen shots illustrating the processes I describe. One feature that impressed me was the integration between the three screens at the Controller’s work station. In addition to the train graph, another screen shows the Working Time Table and the third the rolling stock diagrams.
So click on a head code on the graph, the path appears in red and the service is highlighted on the WTT. Should you cancel a service the effect on stock diagrams appears on the right hand screen.
To retime a train you simply drag and drop its line across the train graph. Trains can be re-platformed by dragging and dropping to the chosen platform.
Obviously DeltaRail is unpopular with NR for challenging TMS procurement policy and I’m unpopular for fighting their cause. But having had the TMS add-on demonstrated I reckon TVSC could be the first ROC with a fully featured TMS to enter service, if NR could swallow its pride.
20 year rolling stock programme for the Tube
On 28 February London Underground published the OJEU notice seeking expressions of interest in supplying a new generation of low-energy, high capacity trains for its deep tube services. This marked the start of a rolling stock replacement programme for the Piccadilly, Central and Bakerloo lines. I’ve got a table showing this programme.
But while procurement of what LU is calling its ‘New Train for London’ (NTfL) is getting under way, there is a more immediate requirement to be met. A small number of trains will be needed to supplement the Northern and Jubilee Line fleets, with delivery between 2016 and 2018.
These trains will be clones of the existing Alstom 1995 Stock (Northern) and 1996 Stock (Piccadilly) which are similar but not identical. And when it comes to traction packages there are some interesting obsolescence issues.
Overground too
While I included London Overground in my analysis of future rolling stock requirements in the January 2014 Informed Sources, this month’s column gives TfL’s official numbers. Although dominated by the Crossrail fleet, another 176 EMU vehicles will be needed for the West Anglia Outers plus smaller schemes. Procurement could be interesting Bombardier could keep the Class 378 line running when the lengthening programme ends, or TfL can see whether CAF or Hitachi are willing to throw more bidding costs at the UK suburban EMU market.
Of course, if Hitachi wins the South West Trains’ HLOS capacity contract with the AT-100 then it could be ‘game on’. As ever, watch this space.
DfT Rail reorganises.
After the Intercity West Coast franchise competition fiasco we had Richard Brown’s review of passenger rail franchising policy. That resulted in a new Rail Group being set up within DfT.
Reviews beget reviews, so in July 2013 Adam Jackson was brought in from the Department for Business, Innovation & Skills to lead an Organisational Review of DfT’s rail functions. On 26 February Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin announced that a Rail Executive would be created within DfT, - one of Mr Jackson’s recommendations.
Within the Executive there will be a new Office of Rail Passenger Services (ORPS), which will be responsible for both the on-going franchising programme and management of existing franchises. And it is going to be led by an externally-recruited managing director supported by non-executive board members.
His or her job could be short lived, because the Jackson Review suggests that a move to a more arms-length body to handle ‘rail delivery functions’ should be considered in the longer term.
Recruitment proving hard work
Another of Mr Jackson’s conclusions was that DfT lacks sufficient permanent staff with the contract negotiation and management capabilities needed to run an expanding franchise and investment programme. And those that are available ‘largely comprise those who joined from the Strategic Rail Authority in 2005’.
Since then it has proved difficult to recruit, retain and grow new permanent staff. As a result ‘interims’ represent over 50% of the workforce in some of DfT’s activities.
Even worse, recent recruitment has been poorly supported, with shortlists shorter than the number of posts to be filled. One example was 12 posts filled out of 28 vacancies.
By far the biggest challenge will be recruiting the Managing Director to lead ORPS. And not just a new MD. Current Franchising Director Peter Wilkinson also leaves at the end of the year and finding someone with his authority in the industry, experience and dogged determination to make franchising work will not be easy.
While much is made of comparative pay, I suspect that DfT’s recruiting problems also reflect the reputational backlash from the ICWC franchise competition fiasco.
Network Rail too
Also in the market for scarce managerial talent is Network Rail which has begun recruiting three professional heads - of Track, Structures and Signaling & Controls. It looks to me as though NR is trying to recreate the three railway ‘Chief Engineers’ of Permanent Way, Civil Engineering and Signaling & Telecommunications.
According to NR the new Heads will provide technical and safety leadership and ‘own the company’s asset management policy’ in their discipline, in support of its business objectives.
Railtrack’s pogrom of senior engineers, plus the original policy of buying in both renewals and maintenance, meant that the career path for young engineers leading to the top jobs, also vanished. Coming on for a generation of talent has been lost and NR may find a shortage of appropriately experienced UK rail engineers for these top jobs.
Throwing a senior railway engineer from, say, a European network in at the NR deep end would be a considerable culture shock which could prove counter-productive. But in the Railtrack diaspora a number of engineers found roles with railways in Australia and the Pacific Rim which follow UK practice and these expats might be lured back by the challenge. Whether working for a nationalised NR from September would be an incentive or deterrent is debatable.
Disabled travel has obligations
No obfuscation. It was all my fault.
At the demonstration of the Thales TMS for the February column I suggested a scenario to show how the system copes with a station delay, instancing a passenger in a wheelchair. This resulted in a riff on whether it would be cheaper laying on a taxi rather than incurring delay minutes.
Correction soon followed from operators and disabled travellers alike, pointing out that operators must provide platform-train ramps for wheelchair users.
This is a licence obligation. And as an obligation it is not subject to a test of reasonableness. You simply can’t balance the relative costs of delay minutes versus putting a passenger in a taxi.
So apologies all round for coming up with a witless scenario. And plaudits to LOROL which has just announced that wheelchair users can now turn up and go at its stations – eliminating the need to book assistance in advance.
Ridership growth is not universal
Everyone knows that the railways are enjoying unprecedented growth. In its latest publication the Rolling Stock Strategy Steering Group fills factories with the promise of extra trains needed to meet ridership growth forecasts.
But when ‘everyone’ knows something it’s time to run a sense check. And the Office of Rail Regulation’s latest passenger rail usage statistics, covering Quarter 3 of the current year provided the spur.
In the accompanying blurb new records were hailed. Franchised passenger km were up 2.8% year-on-year setting a new record. Franchised passenger journeys rose by 4.5%– another record. Ticket sales were the best quarter’s revenue since ORR’s statistics began.
This month’s column ends with the sense check. It breaks down the quarterly ridership figures for the last three years by service group.
And it shows that Intercity and Regional ridership has been flat-lining while London & South East has risen by 9%since since Quarter 3 2011-12. I’m hoping to follow this up in more detail.
Roger’s Blog
Last Friday I was due to have my up-date on Alstom Transport in the UK from President Terence Watson. Our last formal interview was in June 2012, just after he had taken over what I assumed was a bed of nails in corporate terms.
But, Terence was bullish, with a list of major UK rail projects for which Alstom was bidding through an alphabet soup of joint ventures. Since the meeting I have been ticking off the contracts won, increasingly embarrassed by my cynicism. I hope to report next month.
This week it’s the Fourth Friday Club where, with the customary impeccable timing, the guest speaker is the railwayman of the hour Patrick Hallgate, NR’s Great Western Route Director.
In an age of ‘death by PowerPoint, Patrick’s presentation on the Great Western Route Modernisation shows how the tool should be used. But I am hoping for some insights on Dawlish and weather resilience in general.
April is looking pretty quiet at the moment and I’m hoping to find time for some more analysis. But on the 10th I’ve been invited to a seminar on the practical implementation of the Internet of Everything.
Since Network Rail has someone on the expert panel, this could be relevant to the day job. And, of course, many aspects of railway operations and maintenance already use smart devices with communications using Internet Protocol.
In last month’s blog I mentioned that I was upgrading with a new computer to replace my long serving Windows XP difference engine. By the end of the week everything was up and running.
In traction terms I suspect that the move from XP and vintage Office to Win 7 and Office 2013 has been the equivalent of replacing an IC125 with a Pendolino. But as I find my way round the menus and task bars, the result is a definite improvement.
Meanwhile, a newspaper article reported that most cash machine networks run Windows XP, for which Microsoft ends support on 1 April. And a railway chum confirms that many railway computer systems, including traction, have been using XP as the OS. Anecdotal evidence suggests that even older Windows OS can still be seen in use on some railway IT systems.
And on that techie note, its time to get my new digital recorder operational ready for my meeting with Terence. While I can still listen to recordings in my archive, the most up to date OS on the CD that came with my old Olympus digital recorder was Windows Me – a bit too retro for my new system.
And I note that the maximum recording time has gone from around 5 hours to over 1,000 hours. Most interviewees throw me out long before then!
Roger