INFORMED SOURCES e-Preview January 2011
It has been a hectic few weeks since the last blog with over 15,000 words written for Modern Railways and the stealth newsletter. And many of the words could not be written until I had done the supporting analysis.
So in the January Modern Railways (where has the year gone) it’s tables galore for the rolling stock fraternity, since in addition to Informed Sources, the issue also includes my annual review of rolling stock reliability.
DfT Rail’s new vehicles – another fine mess
Thameslink slows as Crossrail goes.
IEP enters the end game
On 25 November, ‘Transport Secretary Philip Hammond finally made the long awaited statement on railway investment plans promised in the Comprehensive Spending Review on 20 October. Next day, it was the Golden Spanners awards ceremony and the train builders, maintainers, refurbishers and operators all had the same question: ‘what do the rolling stock numbers in yesterday’s Statement mean’?
You would not believe the brain stretching needed to make sense of the following apparently-simple statement from the Transport Secretary ‘Today I can confirm that the Thameslink project will go ahead in its entirety and I can announce 650 further carriages to reduce overcrowding. In total this amounts to 2,100 new carriages which will help make our railways fit for the 21st century’.
Well, several hours and five tables later, I think I have explained the practical implications. But, be warned, it is hard going. Made unnecessarily so by DfT Rail’s usual combination of sins of omission and commission not to mention our old, confusing, friend ‘Net Additional vehicles’.
But overall it looks as if there may be a few more new vehicles ordered towards the 1300 promised in the High Level Output Specification. Currently awaiting a decision are some Class 350/2 Desiros for Manchester-Scotland services following the Manchester-Liverpool electrification. Also in the same tender are up to 69 vehicles for London Midland, although the need for these is being re-evaluated.
But please bear in mind that the numbers quoted in the Statement exclude vehicles delivered before the May 2010 election. And the much quoted 2,100 new vehicles, due to be delivered between now and 2019, include the 1,800-ish vehicles for Thameslink and Crossrail which won’t start arriving until 2015.
Short term, for the numbers in the Statement to align with reality, by no means a forgone conclusion, I reckon a further 50 new vehicles could be ordered to achieve DfT’ Rail’s claim that 650 Net Additional Vehicles will become available between May 2010 and March 2014.
With the greatest, and most politically sensitive, overcrowding on the Northern routes, the obvious buy would be a run-on of Bombardier Class 172 Turbostars. But don’t forget the aborted procurement of the 202 DMU vehicles by DfT Rail.
Were this to be restarted and a new-to-the-UK design selected as the winner, the successful builder would be hard pushed to have the fleet accepted and in service in 2013. Authorised now, delivery of a follow on order of Class 172s could start in January 2012.
Thameslink and Crossrail update
There is no doubt that rail received a generous settlement in the October Comprehensive Spending Review. One piece of qualified good news was that Thameslink is to go ahead to the original scope. However, the construction programme for Key Output 2, the remodelling of
Trains
Meanwhile Bombardier and Siemens, the shortlisted bidders for the new Thameslink fleet, have been told that selection of the preferred bidder is now expected by
This gives us a datum for the cascade of First Capital Connect’s existing Thameslink Class 319 units. Release of the Class 319s central to the electrification schemes authorised in the 25 November statement. Southern’s franchise commitment to introduce 10 car trains with the December 2013 timetable also depends on the return of its 23 Class 377 EMUs currently sub-leased to FCC.
Delivery
And the omens for the Northwest and Southern are not good. Contractually, two 8-car and eight 12-car new Thameslink units are required to be available for service 40 months after financial close. Assuming the DfT Rail timetable is met, these 10 units would be delivered by the end of February 2015, timing subsequently confirmed by Transport Secretary Philip Hammond in a Parliamentary debate.
Significantly, when asked on 13 December when she expected the first cascaded rolling stock from Thameslink services to be in use by rail operating companies in Greater Manchester, Transport Minister Theresa Villiers pointedly answered a different question.
Crossrail procurement
On 1 December Crossrail began procurement of its new train fleet with the publication of the formal OJEU Notice. The trains are being procured under a Private Finance Initiative (
TfL puts the capital cost of the deal at between £1billionn and £1.9 billion. The outcome is likely to be at the bottom of the range.
Crossrail’s 24 trains/h service will require 57 diagrams. A nominal fleet of 600 vehicles is quoted, equivalent to 95% reliability. Options will include additional trains and depot facilities to support up to another 15 diagrams.
This month’s column gives a preliminary run through the requirement. More will follow when I get into the pre-qualification documentation. The criteria are reported to be particularly demanding. And then there’s the signalling strategy. More on that next month.
IEP – alternative revealed
Since my detailed analysis of Sir Andrew Foster’s Review in the September column, Informed Sources has been an IEP-free zone. First, the future of the Intercity Express Programme was expected to be announced as part of the Comprehensive Spending Review (
Then the
New EMU
During the wait I had been increasingly concerned that Sir Andrew foster’s report on the Value for Money of IEP and the credible alternatives had been seen off. But the 25 November statement revealed why a decision had been deferred again.
Two rolling stock options for Intercity services on the electrified GWML are being evaluated. The choice is between ‘a mixed electric/bi-mode fleet from Agility Trains or procurement of electric trains with compatible diesel locomotives to haul the electric trains to and from locations which are not part of the electrified network’.
Which gives me time in this month’s column to bring the IEP saga up to date. Starting with the train itself.
Evolution
It’s coming on for two years since I published the first full technical description of
One of the features specified by DfT Rail for the EMUs was a diesel Auxiliary Generator Unit (
By the time of my next technical briefing, in February 2010, DfT Rail had expanded the full length/half length formations into the bewildering variety of lengths which were criticised by Sir Andrew.
Clearly the shorter trains wouldn’t need the auxiliary power of a 10-car unit. So for SET II the 10 car electric unit was given two smaller AGUs to avoid a five-car unit having to lug around a 19 litre diesel engine when a smaller unit would do the job.
The Boija
In response to the Foster Review, DfT Rail and Agility trains developed a further iteration of SET (SET III), aimed at reducing costs. Among other changes, the standard formation is now a five car EMU. The driving diesel power house was also dropped from the bi-mode.
How then to meet the bi-mode requirement? Simple, add more underfloor AGUs. Or as Hitachi Europe Managing Director Alistair Dormer explained ‘as we already have the
In other words, the bi-mode has become an underfloor-engined DEMU with a pantograph/transformer car. Does that sound familiar?
A basic five car SET would have seating for around 300 passengers – adequate for off-peak services. At peak times you would run two five cars in multiple.
This could be an electric and a bi-mode in the case of East Coast Anglo-Scottish services. The five car bi-mode would uncouple at
You may share my doubts about the economics of running two five car units with no interconnection on long distance Intercity services. I also have doubts about the performance claims, and have kept my hand in with a power to weight ratio comparison.
Factory
There has also been much high level lobbying centred on
This, I think, wins the Informed Sources ‘Bare-faced cheek of the year’ Award for 2010. Why? Quite simply because here we have the Prime Minister of a country whose railways run a closed market, pressing our Prime Minister to let in a manufacturer who can only profit at the expense of firms who are prevented from selling their products in Japan. And this at a time when it is debatable whether future demand will support one factory in the
Alternative.
Finally, there is the mystery of the new EMU/diesel locomotive alternative proposal. None of the established train builders have put forward an offer, so it looks as if IEP is being compared with a generic modern high speed EMU and diesel locomotive. Has DfT Rail conjured up a ‘straw train’ which will, of course, prove to be inferior, to compare with its pet project?
Anyway whatever the outcome of the review, the decision is likely to be challenged. Agility Trains could well seek compensation if IEP is cancelled two years after being declared preferred bidder. Equally, if the scheme goes ahead in the current radically revised form legal challenges seem certain from the European builders.
Hitachi said that it would be continuing talks with the Department for Transport ‘and will consider our position in the light of these’. And you can’t blame them. Meanwhile Alstom is practising on Eurostar!
Roger’s blog
My first outing after last month’s blog, was to go to one of the ‘Drop in’ sessions organised as part of the consultancy in connection with the revision of the Rail Technical Strategy (RTS) for the next High Level Output Specification in 2012. As you may recall I was fiercely critical of the first RTS which was both technically illiterate and lacked a strategy. It was that RTS, with its claim that electrification would be rendered obsolete in 15 years by self propelled rail vehicles powered by hydrogen or bio-fuels, which brought ‘bionic duckweed’ into currency.
Now we have a consultation document which is every bit as useless as the original, full of corporate boilerplate phrases plus yet more technical misapprehensions. As you may have guessed I feel strongly about this and I had some lively discussions with a number of chums. As soon as this blog is finished I start my formal response to the consultation.
At the end of that week it was the Golden Spanners awards at the Modern Railways Fourth Friday Club. Great atmosphere, some spectacular performances and a new top train.
Tuesday the following week saw me up and down to
Next day it was off again, this time to Paddington for a briefing from Network Rail on developments with the European Train Control System (ETCS) following the Cambrian Early Deployment Scheme going live. I left the office beside the canal at Paddington at 13.40 and was home in Welwyn Garden City by 14.40. Well done LU and FCC.
All this to-ing and fro-ing, meant that I had to miss the Seminar on accessibility that week. And the following week I went down with the norovirus the night before the Railfreight Group Lunch which meant I missed that too.
Now things have quietened down in the run up to Christmas. However the notebook will get an outing this week when the Modern Railways staff Christmas lunch includes a tour of a Pacer depot. How’s that for dedication?
So all that remains to be done is to wish all e-Preview subscribers – all 2100 of you – a happy Christmas and a prosperous New Year. Thanks for all your feedback in 2010. One thing is certain, there won’t be a shortage of things to write about in 2011!
Roger