I’d been expecting something like it for a long time and now it’s happened. I appreciate that Informed Sources can be hard work at times and that the state of the railway is no laughing matter – although I do my best to lighten up the column. But at the beginning of August someone cancelled their subscription with e-Preview with the comment ‘it’s depressing’. Well, if only they had waited, and were interested in Traction & Rolling Stock, they might have had second thoughts.
For a start the news that broke on 10 August had everyone laughing in disbelief. Informed Sources were reporting that the first of the four new 11 car Alstom Class 390 Pendolinos one order would enter revenue earning service when it was commissioned in July next year – but on the East Coast Main Line.
I immediately tweeted this (@Captain_Deltic) as breaking news, with a gratifying response. Tom Harris MP, former transport Minister who has a
It took until next day for an official response to emerge. Directly Operated Railways (
DOR Chairman and Chief Executive Elaine Holt said she was ‘very pleased’ that East Coast had ‘been asked to commission the new Pendolino’ on the ECML. ‘Whose idea was it’ I asked? There was a long pause. Elaine thought it had come up in ‘a variety of discussions with Alstom’ and was also the result of ‘a meeting of a number of minds’.
‘Was it your idea’ I asked Alstom? No, they’d just been asked to support the running of the Pendolino set on the ECML. But the idea might have come from DfT Rail.
My old chum Tony Mercado Director Technical & Professional at DfT Rail, also laughed at my question. Then explained that the idea was the result of a number of issues coming together.
Transport Secretary Philip Hammond was unhappy with new trains going into store until the West Coast franchise was re-let in April 2012. Meanwhile East Coast is struggling with train availability. And Alstom wasn’t averse to demonstrating the basic platform for a potential IEP replacement on the ECML.
Why are the new trains ordered as part of the Pendolino lengthening programme going into store? Because Virgin has always seen inserting two new coaches into a nine car Pendolino as a risk to operational and commercial performance.
It offered to take on this risk when lengthening was being negotiated, but only in return for a two year franchise extension. Transport Minister at the time Tom Harris refused to be ‘blackmailed’.
Instead, DfT Rail ordered the four trains plus 62 vehicles to lengthen 31 Pendolinos itself, with funding by Angel. Lengthening is linked to the fleet’s next heavy overhaul, the start of which will coincide with the replacement franchise in April 2012. But the first complete train will be commissioned by July 2011 and is outside Virgin’s current franchise agreement and was due to be stored until Mr Hammond went ballistic.
Breaking the story gave Virgin the excuse to go public with details of yet another attempt to get the franchise extended. The offer was made to DfT Rail on 4June.
In return for a two year extension to March 2014, Virgin is offering a £70 million premium and will also, at ‘no additional cost to Government’, lengthen the remaining 21 9-car sets. Virgin would also put the first of the new Class 390s on its Scotland-Birmingham service from July 2011. The second new train would be used to upgrade London-Glasgow to hourly throughout the day in January 2012.
But if offered the first new Pendolino would Virgin run it? That question revealed that when the first train is commissioned in July 2011, it will still need an Operator Safety Case because it has a number of differences from the current trains – such as Selective Door Operation. Virgin reckon about three months to get the safety case , and anyway they’ll be training drivers for the track and signalling changes at Bletchley. And DfT would have to cover the reliability risk. So while Virgin would respond if asked, I don’t think the first meeting with DfT Rail would last long.
The more I get into the East Coast Pendolino, the more it is clear that the lengthening programme could turn into another classic DfT can of worms.
Meanwhile I can’t end this saga without sharing an example of weapons grade sophistry from the DfT Press Office, when I asked for a comment on the East Coast proposal they replied “We are aware of discussions that Directly Operated Railways have had about the use of a new Pendolino set on the East Coast main line. This is an operational matter for Directly Operated Railways.” Is someone being hung out to dry?
Last month’s column dealt with the conclusions of Sir Andrew Foster’s review of the Intercity Express Programme (IEP) and credible alternatives. This month comes the fun bit where we turn to the Annexe of the Report which examines credible alternatives in some detail.
To set the scene I publish for the first time the delivery programme for IEP as it stood on the day that former Transport Secretary Lord Adonis called in Sir Andrew to review the Programme. By then IEP had been broken down into six ‘Packages’, starting with Package 0 which would deliver 13 10 car Bi-mode Hitachi Super Express Trains (SET) to replace the 13 East Coast IC125 sets. These could also form all electric and Bi-mode configurations for acceptance testing.
Package 1, a mixed fleet of 5-car SETs, would have replaced the Class 180 DMUs earmarked for East Coast’s now aborted London-Lincoln Service plus some Class 365 EMUs on London-Cambridge services. Package 2, would see a small batch of electric SET running on London-Northampton commuter services at some unspecified date.
Packages 3 and 4 are the main part of the Programme, providing new stock for the electrified Great Western Main Line and replacing IC125 on West of England services. Package 3 also includes new trains for the electrified London-Oxford commuter services. Finally, Package 5 is an option to replace the East Coast IC225 fleet.
In the first half of 2009, against the background of the economic crisis, DfT Rail considered a range of alternative scenarios for IEP. These ranged from ‘Do nothing’, relying on life extending IC125, to the full-house programme as established in the original Invitation to Tender (
One of the Tables, in this month’s table-rich column, explains these options. The one representing best value for money reflects the recession by cutting back the full length IEPs from 10 cars to nine. The number of vehicles in the preferred option is just shy of 800.
As Sir Andrew has explained, there would have been no point in a straight Value for Money (VfM) assessment, since IEP had repeatedly passed DfT Rail’s VfM test. But VfM is irrelevant if you haven’t got the money and the Review’s detailed evaluation of credible alternatives majors on affordability.
A recurring theme is the transformation of a straightforward high capacity IC125 replacement into a one-performance-fits-all solution for long distance, inter-urban and outer-suburban services. On the GWML , for example, the timetable assumes a service of 16 trains/h between
As a result the Review Team’ suggests running fewer, higher-capacity trains, avoiding the need for identical traction performance. In the case of the GWML, forecast capacity requirements could be met by different trains optimised for specific duties. Sir Andrew believes that the lower frequency imposed by the mix of performance characteristics would be off-set by the higher capacity of each design.
According to Sir Andrew, a ‘pick and mix’ approach to the available credible alternatives could ‘deliver the best value solution to improve the services for the passenger and increase the number of seats to allow for growth in passenger numbers’. This would depend on selecting the ‘most affordable and best fit solution’ for service each group
Perhaps that should be ‘mind boggling detail’, because the Review has provided enough ideas, some controversial, to keep readers occupied for hours. The analysis takes the three generic passenger markets – long distance, inter-urban and commuter. Within each market a route-by-route analysis compares current rolling stock with the proposed IEP replacements, and then reviews credible alternatives with their advantages and disadvantages.
And the end result is the Mother of All Tables listing 19 routes and taking rolling stock allocation our to 2026. And it’s not all life-extended existing kit. There’s the TRAXX UK super-power electric locomotive, hauling IC125 sets or giving reconfigured IC225 sets more zip. A new design of 10-vehicle inter-urban EMU is also proposed.
ETCS update
Sometime I’m going to have to write a feature article reviewing the continuing development of the European Train Control System (ETCS). But for now I take brief look at what has been happening to the ETCS Early Deployment Scheme (
During February this year, ETCS-fitted trains successfully operated the current timetable over the 22 miles between Harlech and Pwllhli while passengers went by bus. Control was from the new ETCS signalling centre at Machynthlleth.
All was set for
Because of the limited space in the Class 158 cab, the
What next for ETCS in the
Meanwhile, Thameslink Key Output 2 is supposed to be signalled with ETCS from 2016. And the Thameslink ETCS test facility on the Hertford Loop has now become the Hertford National Integration Facility. This suggests that it will be used for all ETCS development.
Restoring the cheerful tone of this month’s column, the final item is celebration of Radio Electronic Token Block, the genuinely low cost signalling system for rural lines that Level 1 ETCS was supposed to replace. Fortunately the Scots took no notice of this policy and decided on a life extension policy for the
Renewal of Infrastructure started in 2006, including improvements to radio coverage. After 25 years the radio equipment was obsolete and Comms Design Ltd of Wetherby has produced new and improved base/repeater stations and a new RETB control rack.
Following successful trials of the new equipment, rollout of the £2.5 million life extension on the two Scottish lines is expected to start later this year with completion in April 2011 The Ipswich-Lowestoft RETB, originally scheduled for replacement by ETCS, is now likely to receive the same treatment.
Well, I hope that hasn’t left you depressed! Since the last blog, I’ve had a session with one of the ‘Work streams’ of Sir Roy McNulty’s Value for Money Review. While the team were seeking my two penn’orth, the tone of the meeting left me convinced that major changes lie ahead..
On 5 August I had a day out at Wimbledon Depot with SWT Fleet Director, my old chum Christian Roth, formerly of Siemens. We met at
At the Depot there was much to discuss, including how they have transformed the reliability of the Class 455 and 458 fleets. All will be revealed in an article later this year. They even had an EE507 traction motor in the shop for me to stroke.
As reported in the last blog, on 6 September it is off to Leamington Spa for the luncheon celebrating the 25th anniversary of SSI. Then the normal round picks up.
On 16 September Virgin is unveiling a Pendolino in Alstom livery at Euston. I had been hoping for the all-over Ferrari red of Alstom’s AGV high speed trains for
At the end of September we have the two day Rail Summit, which I shall try to attend and the following week the IMechE Railway Division’s annual fleet reliability conference which is a ‘must attend’ with changes afoot.
Meanwhile, on a personal note, if you like Victorian country churches or the arts and crafts movement, you can enjoy both when Ayot St Peter’s church, near Welwyn, is open on Saturday 11 September as part of National Heritage weekend. E-mail me for details of how to find us.
Enjoy the rest of the holidays, and keep smiling!
Roger