INFORMED SOURCES e-Preview June 2010
With the election out of the way and public spending cuts assured we can expect railways to be dragged back into the limelight. This month’s column focuses on some of the issues, starting with that perennial subject – cost cutting.
No easy answers to railway cost cutting
HLOS 1300 – the final count-down
NFRIP – the great leveller
Modular signalling becomes reality
Potters Bar inquest
It was my August 2002 column that launched Boiling Frog Syndrome on the railway world. And re-reading eight years on I was still shocked by the cost increases detailed. After that I turned to the cost of the railways and it soon emerged that the privatised railway was costing five times the level of funding British Rail needed at the peak of the 1980s economic boom.
These findings were pooh-poohed at the highest levels at the time. But the apologists are croaking a different tune now. Even Richard Brown has joined the chorus, telling the Railway Study Association, ‘we have a huge challenge within this industry to bring unit costs down. They have gone up hugely since privatisation’.
And on May 7, Sir David Rowlands, former DfT Permanent Secretary, chimed in, asking ‘what will the new government do about transport’ and ‘where will the cuts come’? In addition to capital expenditure in road and rail, revenue support could be hit. Efficiency savings and cutting consultants ‘is not nearly enough’.
Finally, briefing the press the day after his appointment, our new Transport Secretary Phillip Hammond was clear that the ‘age of easy government money was over’ and that the railways would have to ‘sweat their assets’. When it comes to sweating rolling stock assets you have been reading about it (at great length) first in Informed Sources.
Mr Hammond was complimentary about the progress made by Network Rail. But when the Treasury comes calling to demand its money back, and he was previously Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Mr Hamond will see that roughly half of the £5 billion annual rail funding goes to Network Rail in the form of a direct grant.
There had been loose talk during the election campaign of cutting this grant. But Network Rail’s funding is in fact protected from such unilateral government action under the 2005 Railways Act.
Obviously the High Level Output Statement can’t be cast in stone and there has to be provision for changes in circumstances. If DfT Rail finds doesn’t want to buy something after all, ORR would not insist on the delivery of outputs which customers and funders no longer require.
But to save money by revising the HLOS, DfT Rail will need Network Rail, plus the affected TOCs to ask ORR for an Interim Review. So it is possible to cut-back capital spending. IEP infrastructure (£260 million) is one example, the Thameslink specification is another.
Meanwhile we are now almost exactly two years away from the publication of the HLOS and SoFA for Control Period 5 which will start on
Will it be the HLOS 650?
Nothing has cost me more brain cells or caused readers more confusion, than the last Government’s much vaunted 1300 extra vehicles. With all the talk of cuts and sweating assets I thought it would be a good idea to explain where the process had got to and reset the counter for the new Transport Secretary.
For completeness I also show how he has got from the original Rolling Stock Plan (RSP) in January 2008 to today’s policy vacuum. For those readers who like tables, this is something for you.
Left in suspense over the election were the remaining two orders. London Midland has named Siemens as preferred bidder for its growth build of either 12 or 17 four-car Class 350/2 Desiros.
Following the Northern Triangle electrification last year, DfT Rail added nine four-car EMUs for the notional ‘Manchester-Scotland Franchise’ to the existing LM Requirement. These will provide the new electric through services made possible by the electrification.
Also outstanding is the SWT growth build, where Porterbrook anticipated the hard times ahead and saw off Siemens with a mix ‘n’ match Class 458/460 combination, plus some Class 456 units, to meet the SWT requirement at minimum cost.
This proposal will provide a steer on the severity of the austerity to come. I would expect the deal to go ahead. If it doesn’t matters are really dire.
Thameslink
After some confusion it emerged that the HLOS 1300 included around 300 of the new vehicles for Thameslink, then expected to be delivered by the end of the current Control Period in March 2014. The Thameslink contract calls for 10 12-car units in service 40 months after contract signature.
Before the election financial close was expected in December this year – which puts 120 vehicles in the HLOS 1300. There is now concern that the financial close could be pushed back to March 2011. This would take delivery of the first 10 units out of the CP4 HLOS.
If this happens, and LM gets authorisation for its maximum option, the HLOS 1300 will have become 647 – or almost exactly half the number DfT Rail first thought of.
Reliability wars
There was an interesting claim when the page allocated to ‘the case for IEP’ appeared on preferred bidder Agility Trains’ web-site. It read: The Hitachi built Class 395 …. is the most reliable train on southern rail network and is currently the fourth most reliable train in the UK after only three months in passenger service”
This was a bit naughty, not to say unwise, because since the Class 395s entered timetabled service in December 2009, I have not been the only one keeping track of how the much-vaunted Japanese reliability translates to
And neither claim stood up. The Period 12 2009-10 NFRIP figures, covering the Class 395’s third Railway Period in service, recorded a Moving Annual Average (
After a couple of promptings
Personally, I found the graph a bit sad. At 29477 MP5MD for Period 13 2009-10, the Class 395s are in Division 2, in Football League terms, with early promotion to Division 1 (30,000 plus) expected. And not all Siemens fleets are in the Championship (40,000 plus)
Just above the Class 395s on 29747 MP5MD is another new fleet, the Class 350/2 Desiros on LM. And I can’t resist mentioning that in 15th place, and separating the two new fleets, are the SWT Class 455s – with the classic English Electric traction package.
So with two new fleets so close together I am going to monitor their reliability growth over the next six months and report back in the January 2011 Modern Railways. Captain Deltic is also offering a cross-cultural prize for the first of the two fleets to reach the Championship.
Modular signalling in the metal
It took me a long time to get my head round Network Rail’s modular signalling concept. In fact, I didn’t and had to rely on signalling guru Dr Alan Cribbens to decode an obtuse power point presentation at a conference and translate it into a concept I could understand.
I met Alan during my visit to the Infrarail Exhibition and, comparing note, I was encouraged that he shared my enthusiasm for the progress with ModSig shown on a number of stands.
Invensys not only explained how they are implementing their ModSig pilot contract between Crewe and Shrewsbury, which uses the company’s Westrace single processor interlocking, they also made sure I hade seen the various components on other exhibitors’ stands suitable for modular signalling. I’ve got photos of some of these in the column.
Invensys’ approach is based on the use of existing telecommunications networks to link interlockings and control systems to remote local equipment, such as points and signals. Standard modules called ‘object controllers’ provide the interface with the lineside kit.
This modular approach means that system design can be automated, reducing costs, and Invensys is aiming for a ‘three site visit’ process. The first visit is the site survey for the installation design. Visit 2 covers construction and installation. The last visit is for commissioning.
To speed installation and commissioning all the components for a local scheme are first assembled in a large building with validation and verification testing carried out under factory conditions.
Once testing is complete, the equipment is disconnected and loaded into containers, taken to site, installed and ‘plugged’ back together. Because of the pre-assembly commissioning should be a straightforward process.
All very exciting and I’m looking forward to visiting Signalling Solutions Ltd (
Roger’s blog
Last month when I signed off I had a quiet month ahead with only the Crewe Dinners, where I was guest speaker, in my diary. Well the diary soon filled up.
But first the Crewe Dinner. Normally I decline after dinner speaking invitations because after a dinner we expect to be entertained and I don’t do funny – well not intentionally. But when the call came from this year’s Chairman Allan Baker I had to answer the call.
First, I have had many enjoyable evenings at the Dinner and now was a chance to put something back. Second Allan and I top and tail the Deltic era at Finsbury Park Depot. Finally traction engineers are more forgiving and I thought I had something to say.
And it was a cracking evening, from the moment I was looking for my place on the top table and found it marked by a freshly polished Napier Deltic piston. My job was to propose the toast to “Crewe Men Past and Present” and I took the opportunity to state the case for my late friend John Dowling, who trained at Crewe as Britain’s greatest locomotive designer of the 20th Century.
Speakers are expected to make some reference to the current state of the industry and I used John’s last design, the Class 91 locomotive built at
Responding on behalf of past
A tradition at the dinner is that speakers get a model loco. So I am now the proud possessor of a Duchess in wartime black livery
After that, May filled up nicely. First I was invited in by Directly Operated Railways for an up-date on East Coast from Elaine Holt. The next day Virgin and Alstom took us to see the new Pendolino facility at
We went in the Virgin Mk 3 rake with brunch en route. Gliding ride, big windows, full English – several wags asked if this was the new Pendolino replacement. Sadly an evening appointment meant I couldn’t have dinner on the leisurely return. And while the Pendolino has a ‘boy racer’ ride compared with the grace, pace and space of the Mk3 you can’t fault the journey time.
Last week I was called in for a grilling by the Foster Review of IEP and its credible alternatives. The report will be with the new Secretary of State by the end of May and will be published, including a technical and commercial annex to keep me busy.
This coming week there’s a conference on Railway Improvement on Tuesday and in the afternoon I have my delayed ‘get-to-know-you’ meeting with newish ORR Chairman Anna Walker. This should be interesting given the possibility of an interim review mentioned above.
Then, at the moment, it’s quiet until the IMechE Tram Train seminar on 22 June followed the Fourth Friday Club on the 25th when the speaker is Anna Walker. This FFC meeting will also see the presentation of the Modern Railways innovation awards. But I suspect that it won’t stay quiet for long!
Roger