INFORMED SOURCES e-Preview April 2010
Yet again, the Intercity Express Programme (IEP) leads off Informed Sources. But instead of the updated technical description I expected to be writing, it’s ‘project deferred’ while DfT gets a second opinion.
IEP faces trial by reality
Finite funding allocation critical
Trains in snow-land
Thameslink opening – ignorance not confusion
Last months’ report on DfT Rail’s plans to introduce Hitachi Super Express Trains (SET) on the East Coast Main line drew on a background briefing from a Department civil servant over a working lunch during my visit to
Exactly three weeks later and the Transport Secretary was on the phone, for a background chat on his Statement issued that morning, announcing that a decision on IEP had been deferred until after the upcoming General Election – expected to be on 6 May.
Since my Ashford briefing, commercial close had slipped to late March. An announcement then could have made the project an election issue. Hence the decision to wait until after the election when the deal would be a straightforward policy decision.
But that was the gloss, because the statement had a greater truth in the tail. It went:
‘To ensure that a decision is taken at the beginning of the next Parliament on the basis of the fullest evaluation, I have today asked Sir Andrew Foster, former controller of the Audit Commission, to provide an independent assessment of the value for money of the Programme and the credibility and the value for money of any alternatives which meet the Programme's objectives’.
So the real reason for the delay was that someone in the DfT had woken up to what was going on and ordered a halt pending what is clearly a fundamental review. According to the statement ‘If Sir Andrew Foster reaffirms that the Intercity Express Programme is better than the alternatives, my intention would be to proceed with the project in the next Parliament, subject to satisfactory resolution of all the contractual issues’.
But with these terms of reference the Review, lets call it the ‘Foster Review’, must kill off the ECML proposals, including the replacement of IC125. DfT Rail’s ECML-first policy for IEP was always perverse and more about finding an early application than a cost-effective rolling stock policy.
Anyway Sir Andrew will report within three months. What the Tories will do if they are elected I haven’t bothered to ask.
£100,000 a day
Meanwhile, I have been doing some sums.
To get IEP this far, DfT Rail, Bombardier and Siemens (the unsuccessful bidders) and
Add in the costs of DfT’s unsuccessful challenge to the ROSCO’s lease rental charges, plus the aborted Diesel Multiple Unit procurement and we are getting on for £100 million of nugatory expenditure incurred by the Department. The current value for money review of the railway industry, chaired by former Civil Aviation Authority Chairman Sir Roy McNulty (the McNulty Review) and sponsored by DfT and the Office of Rail Regulation, might start with some introspection.
Where to invest in trains?
Procurement of both the IEP and the new Thameslink fleet has been affected by the financial crisis. Deliveries have been ‘sliced’ into batches matched to the funding that can be raised – typically £500 million for the first tranche of trains in each deal.
But if, you have money to invest in trains, is a rolling stock mega-project the best home for your investment? Well, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding both IEP and Thameslink and who knows what the post election spending cuts will bring – or rather, take away.
A much safer home for your money would be a portfolio of proven existing trains with long term lease rentals and potential upside through life extension. Otherwise known as a Rolling Stock Company (ROSCO).
HSBC is seeking bidders for its Eversholt Rail subsidiary. A snip, I am told, at £2 billion with a £1.7 billion debt package already lined up.
For the more-cautious investor, how about joining in the refinancing of Angel Trains and Porterbrook. Both were sold a year or two back, Angel for £3.6 billion and Porterbrook for £2 billion. These deals are now being refinanced – say another £500 million each.
According to Informed Sources last month’s Extra on Rolling stock life extension has been circulated round the banks to illustrate the ROSCOs’ potential up-side!
Winter weather traction experience
For background on the performance of traction and rolling stock in the January snows I dug the April 1991 Informed Sources out of the archive to refresh my memory of the snowfall that year. And in some respects things had improved, in others, not.
In 1991 the highest profile failures were among the Thameslink fleet. This time around, 32 Class 319 traction motors failed. Pantographs are still icing-up, or rather, down and First Capital Connect had to turn trains on arrival at
Traction motor failures were a surprise, since at the 1991 press conference to announce British Rail’s response to the 1991 disruption we were shown film of a Class 319 traction motor with double insulation running submerged in a tank of water.
Of course, running a motor underwater doesn’t replicate the mechanical damage when snow melts inside a motor, then freezes overnight in the sidings. This year some EE 507 motors on the Class 455s are reported to have had some problems this year and they are as rugged as they come.
New stock
But how did the new generation three phase drive EMU’s cope with the snow? Southern and c2c kindly took me through their snow experiences.
Southern has largest homogenous fleet of Electrostars on the DC electrified network and c2c the largest 25kV AC fleet. Both reported the same irritating ‘shot in the foot’ failures.
Briefly, a recent modification programme meant that contamination in the cooling air could by-pass the filters on the Auxiliary Converter Modules. When snow or water entered in the same way, the moisture got onto the layer of contamination on components and caused flashovers. Shades of the Eurostar failures.
Both Southern and c2c found that the contamination was getting in through the top covers of the ACM housing which had been removed as part of the modification programme and replaced with inadequate sealing. In addition to dirt and snow being sucked into the casings, snow became packed into the gap between the top of the module and the floor of the vehicle. And then melted with predictable consequences.
Despite having around a couple of dozen ACM failures each, the c2c and Southern engineers kept on top of the problem and maintained services. But there is now a price to be paid in the form of a backlog of work.
Despite this extra workload taking units out of service, in Period 12, which ended on 6 March, c2c leapfrogged rivals MerseyRail in the PPM Moving Annual Average race, achieving a new record of 96.57%.
Interference
What we didn’t have in 1991 were three phase drives and the associated risk of signalling interference. Up to now the problem has been arcing at the third rail or contact wire. The arc contains the full spectrum of frequencies – a bit like white noise – including the critical signalling frequencies.
To prevent the monitoring system shutting the train down, three-phase drive trains have an ‘ice mode’. When selected by the driver this makes the monitoring equipment less sensitive.
While arcing is under control, over the past couple of years Southern has been resolving the opposite problem – ice forming an insulating layer on the third rail causing the train’s software to think it is gapped.
How this problem was overcome, just in time for the past winter is, I think, a fascinating tale of engineering ingenuity.
Meanwhile, and you won’t find this in the column, the Hitachi Class 395s handled their first
Thameslink KO2 – don’t hold your breath
It has been clear for some weeks that Thameslink Key Output 2 – when 24 trains/hour are supposed to start running on the enlarged network, has slipped from its December 2015 target date. But could I find anyone who knew the new opening date? The best I could get was ‘from 2016’.
So when the latest Office of Rail Regulation Network Rail Monitor used this opaque phraseology, I asked Michael Lee, ORR's Director of Access, Planning and Performance, to put a date on ‘from’. He explained that with the revised plans for
What we do know is that tender documents for the new trains specify delivery in terms of the ‘later’ of a date or a number of months after contract signature. And if financial close is reached by the latest target date of December this year, the full fleet will not be in service until September 2016. So that suggests that KO2 has slipped at least a year.
Meanwhile, here’s classic stalling answer. Asked on 16 March whether he expects the Class 319s cascaded from Thameslink stock for services in the North West to be in service by March 2014, Transport Minister Chris Mole replied: ‘The commercial negotiations on the procurement of the new [Thameslink] vehicles are ongoing and until these are finalised, it will not be possible to confirm the timing of the resulting cascades
This is an entirely accurate non-answer. The truthful answer would be ‘dunno’.
Roger’s blog
As ever events added a bit more spice to March than I expected. In the first week I had another of those cryptic phone calls along the lines ‘we think you really ought to come to our press conference – there’s something you’ll find interesting’.
This time it was the ORR and they were taking the opportunity of the publication of the latest Network Rail Monitor to release correspondence on their concerns about Network Rail’s restructuring of its maintenance activities.
I stayed in
Wednesday last week saw the Election 2010 rail debate organised by Chinese train builders
As one of the planning team I thought the outcome exceeded our expectations – in large part thanks to the expert chairmanship of my longstanding chum Nick Owen. The politico’s detailed knowledge was generally impressive (did I write that?) and they genuinely engaged with the audience. I had fun acting as Nick’s ‘Statto’ and keeping some of the claims honest – like the 1300 vehicles.
I also asked one question: how would they balance the 2012 HLOS and SoFA due in just 28 months time? To a man they denied that railway funding would be cut for Control Period 5. Hmm.
This coming week ends with a Fourth Friday Club meeting.
It is back to the German Gymnasium between Kings Cross and St Pancras International and the after lunch speaker will be Keith Berryman, Land and Property Director of Crossrail. He will be followed by a short presentation by Paul Goodhew of London Underground introducing a tour of the new northern ticket hall at King's Cross tube station.
Details at www.4thfriday.co.uk.
In April I’m looking forward to meeting e-Preview subscribers at the Infrarail Exhibition in
Finally, and try not to be too scornful, you can now follow Captain_Deltic on Twitter. Yes, I know that this ‘social medium’ has a bad name, but a number of railway people are starting to use it professionally.
My aim is to see if Twitter can add value to Informed Sources by supplementing e-Preview. So no running commentaries on my day, but you will get the occasional note of something important that has happened.
An encouraging sign is that since I went on twitter, we have seen a burst of new subscribers to e-Preview.
Roger