INFORMED SOURCES e-Preview December 2009
Writing for a magazine which publishes on the fourth Friday of the preceding month can cause disorientation at this time of year. Here I am writing this in November having just opened the 2010 Informed Sources folder for the January column which will appear before Christmas. And, as we shall see, there are lots of things which are supposed to happen by Christmas
Alstom out of Thameslink bidding
Thameslink: Bombardier’s train is lean and mean
HS2 - route out before election
National Express ran out of cash
Captain Deltic’s traction and rolling stock round-up
At 17.00 on Thursday 22 October Alstom Transport was told that it had been eliminated from the bidding to build the new fleet of trains for Thameslink. Thameslink bids are subject to a four stage evaluation, starting with mandatory requirements in the Train and Train-Infrastructure Interface specifications.
Stage 2 evaluates compatibility with the non-mandatory technical requirements plus financial deliverability
Next Project Deliverability is evaluated. Finally, there is value assessment based on the whole life cost of each proposal.
Alstom’s bid failed on the technical evaluation. While the two other bidders (Bombardier and Siemens) considered that Network Rail’s Vehicle Track Interface Strategic Model (VTISM) penalises articulation, I don’t think this was an issue. There are suggestions that the 17.5 tonne axle load had raised issues on weak bridges at the Southern end of Thameslink, but I doubt that it was a show stopper either.
Where I suspect that X’trapolis suffered was by not having enough of its innovative features proven in service. With Thameslink, DfT Rail is looking for a design which ‘exploits advances in technology, adapting optimised solutions developed and proved across the world into a package compatible with the UK infrastructure’,
About 60% of X’trapolis was derived from proven equipment. But Bombardier claims that it can track every element of Aventra offer for Thameslink back to equipment already in service.
Now we have a run off between two conventional trains. I judge the Bombardier Aventra to be closer to DfT Rail’s heart’s desire: but as we have seen with the Intercity Express Programme, being offered what you said you wanted can turn out a bit too scary for comfort.
Aventra
Bombardier’s Aventra completes the Informed Sources technical analysis of the three Thameslink contenders. Two years in development, the new train combines technology from Bombardier’s European designs with an evolution of Electrostar, to create a new train specifically for the unique
While Aventra gives a convincing impression of being DfT Rail’s a ‘Next Generation EMU’ it is, in fact, not at all radical. Unlike Alstom, Bombardier realised that ‘the more the customer sees a new train they see more risk’.
Thus the Aventra bodyshell uses the same assembly techniques from Electrostar but is welded, rather that bolted, together. Similarly the inside frame bogies, which save around five tonnes per vehicle, may be called FLEXX Eco but they are really the latest version of the B5000 which in turn was evolved from the British Rail Research Advanced Suburban Bogie.
Bombardier is predicting the average weight of a 20 metre long Aventra vehicle at 32.6 tonnes. The lightest vehicles weigh 32 tonnes compared with 35.4 tonnes for a Class 377 Electrostar trailer vehicle.
More proven innovation can be seen in the traction package. The traction motors are similar to those used on Bombardier’s AGC EMUs in France. The water-cooled converter supplying the motors is currently being installed in the EMUs being manufactured at
As you can read in the full description, I was impressed by Aventra, as I was with the other contenders. And you could argue that I should be, given each bidder will have spent coming on for £10 million in developing their offers.
HS2 latest
Shocking though it might seem I’m not wildly enthused by the various High Speed line proposals, largely because they are mostly general aspirations. Network Rail’s capacity driven study, featured in the October column was an exception, but the real interest will come when High Speed 2 Limited (HS2L) presents its report to the Transport Secretary at the end of December.
HS2L’s task is two-fold. First there will be detailed proposals for increasing capacity between
In October I interviewed HS2L’s Chief Executive Alison Munro and Chief Engineer Andrew McNaughton as they were starting the final push. A couple of week’s later Transport Secretary Lord Adonis told me that he is expecting to publish a statement of policy on HS2, and the wider high speed network, in ‘late February or March’ next year.
Where other proposals talk of corridors, the alignment of HS2 is being engineered to a lateral accuracy of plus/minus 25 metres. Vertical alignment, track level relative to the surrounding terrain, will be to within plus/minus 50cm. So we will know exactly where it is going and the scale of the earthworks and tunnels required. The cost estimates will be the most accurate to-date.
A timetable for HS2 sees construction starting in 2017 and taking six years followed by 21 months for commissioning The route could be carrying traffic by the middle of 2025, although Andrew McNaughton concedes that this would be ‘going it’.
Network
Most media coverage has focused on HS2L’s second remit – to report on the feasibility of a national high speed network. Rather than looking to increase capacity on exiting rail corridors, HS2L’s network study is focusing on population density, linking the South East, West Midlands, the North West, Yorkshire, the North East and the Edinburgh-Glasgow belt in Scotland.
According to Andrew McNaughton, where HS2 is driven by lack of capacity on the existing rail routes, the key issue with the extended network is ‘how close you can bring cities together to each other. How far they become, rather than city pairs, a shared economic area’?
NXEC RIP
On 5 November, DfT Rail announced that that it would be terminating the National Express East Coast franchise from 23.59 on November 13. Before the announcement everyone had been expecting the keys to be handed back, on 13 December, coinciding with the timetable change. Even DfT Rail’s subsidiary Directly Operated Railways had only two days notice of the change of plan.
There were two reasons, financial and tactical, for the change of plan.
National Express Group’s commitment to NXEC took the form of a subordinated loan of £40 million. This had been deemed adequate by DfT Rail when the franchise was let – and they could have asked for more.
On July 1 NXEC had spent £17.5 million of the £40 million loan topping up the revenue shortfall caused by the economic crisis. By 30 September £34 million had gone
This gave a burn-rate of £1.27 million/week with £6 million left to burn. On 30 September NXEC had enough to keep going for another five weeks – to 4 November. So why was everyone assuming NXEC could keep going until 13 December?
NXEC must have believed that it could get more cash coming in and slow the burn rate by a massive sale of low cost advance fares. But other TOCs have told me that their revenue lines are being hammered by advanced ticket sales.
And seeing some of the ludicrously low fares being thrown up by the yield management computers I can understand why.
And on 5 November NEG confirmed that the Group’s committed funding support ‘has now been fully advanced to NXEC’. The money had run out as predicted by the burn rate.
But DfT Rail also needed to bring forward the termination date. The current National Express East Anglia franchise runs for an initial period of seven years, until March 2011, with an option for the term to be extended until March 2014. This is subject to certain criteria being been met by
So by terminating NXEC on 13 November, DfT Rail removed NEG’s right to obtain this extension automatically. Any extension is now at DfT Rail’s discretion.
With DfT Rail taking what I can only describe as a vindictive attitude towards NEG the next question is whether it decides to punish NEG further by applying cross default to NXEA and c2c. This would hit NEG financially. Not only would the Group lose cash flow and profit, NEG estimates it could also have to pay back round £80 million in the event of termination through cross default of its two remaining franchises. When I asked Lord Adonis about cross default on 17 November he replied ‘we’re still looking at it’.
Rolling Stock Plan
When you receive e-Preview our industry will have been 123 days without a Rolling Stock Plan. The original Amazing Shrinking RSP has had to be revised following the announcement of the electrification programme. The latest news from DfT Rail is that the pressure is now on to ‘get it out before Christmas’.
Meanwhile here’s a quick up-date.
The Thameslink Invitation To Tender required 14 units to be in service by July 2013 or 39 months after contract signature, whichever is the later.
Financial close is planned for
An option for a further 42 vehicles to lengthen the remaining sets Pendolino sets to 11 cars expires in August 2010. DfT Rail ‘intends to make a decision by the end of the year on whether we wish to progress this option further’.
Roger’s blog
October ended with a busy day. Up early to meet the Transport Secretary at St Albans Abbey station for the announcement of Herts County Council’s tram proposal followed by a trip to
Apart from providing a chance to test the pulse of the supply industry, (beating strongly) the
It’s always a tonic to escape back into the real world of people who make and supply things. So I was in a relaxed mood when I walked back to
I spotted Iain having a reflective coffee in the platform refreshment room and we surveyed the scene together. He had phoned Control so we knew more about what was going on than anyone else on the platform. A train had failed with locked brakes between
As ever, no one seemed to be in overall command, the Information displays and automated announcements bore no relationship to reality or the announcements being made by the staff. My HST to
Last week I was invited to join Lord Adonis on his ‘10 worst stations tour’. This was a surreal experience because the Network Rail and
It was, of course, pure electioneering and, equally, gave the national media the chance to run ‘railways are rubbish stories’. Would the Health Secretary tour the 10 worst hospitals?
Still, at least you can have free and frank (code for heated) discussions with Lord A, and agree to differ at the end. And he tells me he is watching how last month’s Intercity manifesto is developing.
This week it’s the Golden Spanners awards at the Fourth Friday Club meeting. And in addition to the spanners for most the reliable and most improved fleets, there’s also a Champagne Challenge to be handed over.
December opens with an IMechE conference on electrification on the 3rd.and the following week it’s the Rail Freight Group lunch where I always meet lots of readers. There’s an IRSE paper on energy in the evening which sounds interesting
And the week after that the Modern Railways annual Christmas get-together brings the year to a close.
Not a lot going on, then, which is fortunate because in addition to Informed Sources I also have to write my annual rolling stock fleet reliability review for the January issue. Preliminary analysis suggests some interesting results.
Back to the spreadsheet for now.
Roger