Informed Sources e-preview by Roger Ford (view all archives)

INFORMED SOURCES e-Preview February 2009

This month’s column is all about new traction and rolling stock. Obviously I try to provide a balance between the various engineering and management disciplines each month, but at the time of writing, just after the New Year, trains were dominating the industry.

IEP – not too big to fail

IEP bi-mode – a flawed concept

IEP - DfT Rail on the defensive

Four bid for new DMUs

Thameslink spearheads Alstom’s UK comeback

As reported in last month’s e-Preview, the announcement of the preferred bidder for the Intercity Express Programme didn’t happen on 19 December as planned. This was because while DfT Rail is reported to ‘prefer’ the bid from the Hitachi consortium, the credit crunch means that the IEP can’t be funded in its original form.

This apparently didn’t become apparent until DfT Rail sent its IEP proposal to the Treasury for approval. The Treasury, which is already having problems in funding the £5 billion M25 widening Private Finance Initiative, didn’t want another preferred bidder unable to raise the moolah and, reportedly, called off the IEP announcement with 12 hours to go.

But not before DfT Rail had sent the Association of Train Operating companies a Q&A crib sheet on the new wonder train. This rebutted specific criticisms of the IEP and while I know I am not noted for being backward in coming forward, honestly, most of the criticism appeared first in Informed Sources. More Q&A later.

So what happens now? Well, discussions are continuing on how to fund IEP in bite sized chunks. But a complicating factor is the start of procurement of the new Thameslink fleet which is a ‘must have’ (by December 2015) rather than a ‘nice to have’ like IEP.

Have the financiers the appetite to fund both? It seems unlikely, in which case the political imperative is with Thameslink and banker tell me that raising £2 million in £150 million chunks for that will be hard and slow. Add in the impact of evolving electrification policy on IEP and deferment seems the next stage for the ‘Zombie Train’.

Bi-mode challenge

By far the most controversial feature of IEP is the Bi-mode version, with both a pantograph/transformer car and a diesel power house feeding the traction packages along the trains. DfT Rail is obviously sensitive about the criticism because the Q&A sheet mentioned earlier includes three questions on the subject – and gives some puzzling answers.

For example, I assumed that Bi-mode would be a full power electric IEP with one driving car replaced by the diesel power house. But the Q&A keeps mentioning that the full length (10 car) Bi-mode trains will need to fire up the diesel power house to ‘top up’ (their terminology) the electric power supply when running under the wires.

Now, the 10 car electric IEP will need an installed power of around 4MW. Assuming a symmetrical layout, similar to Pendolino, an IEP could have two five car rakes. Each rake would have a driving car and a 2MW rated pantograph/transformer car feeding three powered vehicles.

But, all this talk of ‘topping up’ under the wires can only mean that the 10 car Bi-mode will have 2MW electric at one end and a 2MW diesel power house at the other – total,still 4MW. This in turn suggests that the diesel engine is going to be running a lot of the time. Weird.

Adhesion

Another question asks whether a 10 car bi-mode IEP running on diesel power alone will be able to match today’s HST journey times? And the answer is ‘the higher number of powered axles on an IEP long bi-mode means that journey times when not under the electric wire will be comparable to HST, despite the higher installed power of the HST’.

And there is more of the same. For example ‘train running times will be comparable on the non electrified sections as the bi-mode IEP train is much more capable of deploying its power at the rail during acceleration than an HST’.

Now I think DfT Rail has committed a technical howler by while focusing on the number of axles and forgetting the critical importance of adhesive weight. As I attempt to show with Tables galore – and even a Tractive effort/speed curve for DP2 – the claims just don’t add up.

IEP defended

As far as I can tell the DfT Rail IEP Q&A has not been published on the Department’s web site. If you would like some light reading e-mail me (roger@alycidon.com) with IEP in the subject line and I’ll send you a pdf.

There’s some interesting information and misinformation, such as misquoting Alstom’s reason for withdrawing after pre-qualification.

Issues covered include reliability, diesel loco haulage versus bi-mode and last, but not least, a justification for fitting a small diesel generator set to the electric IEP, able to power the train at up to 30 mile/h. The designers of Shinkansen, TGV and ICE3 must be kicking themselves for missing such an essential feature of the modern high speed electric train

DMU procurement

Well, the usual suspects pre-qualified for the ‘accelerated’ order for 200 DMU vehicles announced in the pre-Budget report. And the Invitation To Tender was issued on schedule on 22 December. But compared with buying Bombardier Turbostars off the production line accelerated it won’t be.

DfT Rail admitted as much when it said that the ‘extra’ carriages are due to start carrying passengers ‘by 2012’. My Chinese chums at CSR Nanjing Puzhen reckon they could get their first units into service in September 2011 and I can’t see CAF or Hyundai Rotem beating this. More Turbostars would start entering service 15 months earlier.

And there was an interesting caveat from Transport Minister Lord Adonis: an order would be subject to ‘a satisfactory conclusion of the procurement process and negotiations with the relevant franchises’.

And an odd thing about the list of franchises is than one of them is Trans-Pennine Express, which was in the market for more vehicles from Siemens to add a car to 24 of its Class 185 Desiro DMUs. But according to Informed Sources the Class 185 lengthening is now dead – even though Siemens was prepared to supply trailer cars to reduce the rising cost.

TPE already operates nine Turbostars, so a small quantity of yet another design of DMU would be a pain for maintainers and operators. Still, I expect it will eventually make sense

Specification

Just when the trend is towards, lighter, more energy efficient DMUs, DfT Rail’s specification for the new DMUs heads the other way. For example, the new train has to be able to run at 100mile/h into a 37mile/h (60km/h) headwind fully laden.

Since aerodynamic drag dominates train resistance at high speed, the effect of the headwind is to double the power needed. Bigger engine, bigger cooler group, heavier body to support the heavier drive. Oh dear. Still it should pass the Lickey test with flying colours

Regen

And while we’re buying some urgently needed DMU vehicles, why not turn four of them into mobile test beds? Yes, bidders are asked to supply four three-car units with regenerative braking from two different sources.

But a trial with Voith’s ‘Ecopack’ hydrostatic regenerative braking system is already being funded by DfT Rail. It should start running under a Class 153 later this year. There are also some droll suggestions for other regen systems the builders might consider.

Alstom back in the market

Last month I wrote about Alstom’s revival in the UK signalling market. This month it’s the turn of rolling stock.

I’m sure I’m not alone in mentally filtering out Alstom when contemplating suppliers for future train orders in the UK. After all, the Juniper EMU debacle killed off the company’s credibility and left Bombardier and Siemens a clear run at the post privation market.

But this is to discount the Company’s major, and successful, presence in the UK, through long term train service provision contracts for Pendolino and the Northern and Jubilee line Underground fleets.

Juniper meant that the company didn’t have a ‘stock’ multiple unit to offer like Electrostar and Desiro. But it did have Pendolino and last year’s lengthening order, together with a 10 year extension to the maintenance contract, means that the UK has caught the attention of the French owners. In the half year to last September the UK and Ireland represented 60% of Alstom Transport’s total orders. In addition to the Pendolino bonanza, orders included signalling work, additional cars for Dublin and an extension of the Jubilee line train maintenance contract.

Alstom’s re-entry strategy is to start by targeting three repeat orders from existing customers. Pendolino has been won, there is a bid in for Tubeline’s Piccadilly Line replacement fleet and a bid for the €4 billion Dublin Metro North turnkey project is die to be submitted in February.

Thameslink

Having, wisely, passed on IEP, the Company is now focusing its resources on the substantial EMU market starting with the 1250 or so vehicles for Thameslink. The basis for the bid is the articulated version of Alstom’s X’trapolis platform, which should tick a lot of boxes at DfT Rail and Network Rail.

Finally

There’s also the usual fun and games trying to reconcile the latest government statements with the make up of the 1300 additional vehicles. The good news is that an announcement on the 120 EMU Stansted vehicles may be approved shortly.

Roger’s blog

There’s not a lot to blog about this month as I’m currently sorting out visits to factories, depots and conferences in my new diary. But this coming week is fairly busy.

On Tuesday the Conservatives have asked ne in to talk about rolling stock procurement. With all that’s going on it will be interesting to see how long the shadow minister lasts before his eyes start to glaze over. As you all know, politicians never ask me back for a second meeting.

Talking of which, at DfT Rails pre-Christmas media party new-ish Transport Minister Lord Adonis asked me to make an appointment for a meeting in the new year, but I haven’t heard back with a date yet. As we met when he was at No 10 the ‘once-is-enough’ rule may have been applied!

At the end of this week it’s the first Fourth Friday Club meeting of the new year. The speaker is Andrew Mitchell, Network Rail's Programme Director for the Thameslink project. Andrew is a forthright bloke, who made his mark on the railway industry managing the highly successful Southern Region Power Upgrade. We can expect an honest appraisal of Thameslink, where Bombardier’s problems with its supply chain are threatening Key Output Zero due in March.

Club Secretary, and Modern Railways Editor, James Abbott has the knack of attracting the top speakers to the FFC. At the 26 June meeting the speaker will be Lord Adonis. Definitely a date for the diary.

Roger