INFORMED SOURCES e-Preview September 2008
After months of regulatory financial analysis, the September column gets back to the real world. I get up to speed on an innovation, continue to grapple with the mystical ‘1300 vehicles’ after a long break revisit safety and preview a big decision.
Tram-Train – so far more train than tram.
HLOS 1300 vehicle total uncertain
SPADs on the rise
West Coast crunch time
Tram-Train has been in the ‘to do’ file for too long. Fortunately a briefing in Sheffield at the end of July, organised by Northern and Network Rail, gave me the chance to get up to speed.
Having talked to the industry partners responsible it is clear that DfT Rail inspired and funded trial is the right idea for the wrong reason. Still, we mustn’t look a £24 million gift horse in the mouth.For DfT Rail Tram-Train is a key element of the ‘differentiated infrastructure’ concept aimed at reducing renewal and maintenance costs on lightly used rural lines by running lightweight vehicles on lighter, and thus cheaper, track.
But out in the real world Network Rail and Northern see Tram Trains as primarily a valuable tool in the UK’s public transport network, allowing passengers to get into the centre of towns without changing, so getting people out of cars. Reductions in maintenance costs and increased asset life are seen as a secondary benefit.
Meanwhile the project has been criticised for running up and down the Penistone Line with no immediate intention for through operation onto Sheffield Supertram, which is, after all, what Tram Train is all about. But what the critics overlook is that the hard part is not city running but getting approval to mix it out on the main line.
This is not going to be easy. For example the Sunderland extension of the Tyne & Wear Metro, shares the rails with main line traffic but freight trains are restricted to 30mile/h over the route. Network Rail and Northern hope to minimise such compromises.
Achieve this and the way is open for Tram-Train to extend existing Light Rail systems across the UK. As Barry Graham, Northern’s Business Development Director for Tram-Train puts it bluntly, ‘if you can’t run on heavy rail you can’t have Tram-Train’
Discussions with Sheffield Supertram on trialling true tram-train operation when the main line tests have been completed, are at a very early stage. Of course, with a rational approach to transport DfT Rail would have already convened a working group of all the Metropolitan authorities with light rail systems and be prioritising opportunities for tram-trains to extend services.
Confused? Iam.
On 30 July DfT Rail released an update on the Rolling Stock Plan (RSP) published in January. According to DfT Rail the update is ‘intended to help the rail industry in planning solutions for the deployment of extra rolling stock’.
You could have fooled me. If anything, the update raises more questions than it answers, and resulted in me firing off yet more questions to the DfT Rail Press Office seeking clarification. A fortnight on and I’m still waiting.
It is all, to use a favourite DfT Rail word, very ‘complex’. A number of ‘potentially complex’ transactions will be required to deliver the 1300 vehicles. DfT Rail claims it has developed a ‘high-level rolling stock delivery plan which captures this complexity’. That is a novel use of ‘captures’.
Having, as I thought, got DfT Rail to clarify the Thameslink fleets up to the introduction of the all-new fleet in December 2015, the list of First Capital Connect’s ‘net additional’ vehicles in the update manages to both add more detail and muddy the waters.
Equally confused is the Northern situation where we still don’t know how many Class 150s are to be cascaded from London Midland. Does it matter? Yes, to the train builders and the ROSCOs because Northern is supposed to be leading on procurement of new DMUs within the cascade.
Meanwhile, despite the start of the next Control Period being only seven months away there seems to be no urgency to order the 1300 vehicles. Trans-Pennine is still waiting for DfT Rail approval to order the extra 42 cars for its Class 185 fleet. National Express East Anglia submitted its proposal to acquire its 120 new EMU vehicles in the RSP on 18 July and Informed Sources expect that it will take ‘months’ before the deal is approved.
TPWS and AWS
Red Alert, the excellent newsletter produced for the industry by consultants Halcrow, published some unwelcome statistics in its latest issue. In the first four months of 2008, the number of SPADs on the main line network increased by 28% compared with the same period in 2007 - up from 109 to 140.
While the underlying reasons for the deterioration in performance are still being investigated, the statistics show that some of the best performing train companies in terms of SPAD reduction have seen performance deteriorate ‘despite the subject receiving a high level of attention’.
This rise is unlikely to be down to any relaxation of effort in SPAD prevention programmes.
This news prompted me to take a new look at some research into AWS acknowledgement times and the influence of TPWS which had been sitting in my ready to use locker for a while. TPWS was an improvised solution to an operational requirement which has turned out to be far more effective than expected. But by piggy-backing on the established AWS system it has changed the driving environment.
For example the switch from the AWS electro-mechanical timer to the digital timer on TPWS has meant that AWS cancellation times are now measured precisely, giving the driver less time to acknowledge the horn. And the cab display – ‘Man Machine Interface’ in signal-speak, is not good at differentiating between AWS and TPWS interventions.
With TPWS set to provide the first line in train protection until ETCS is introduced, I argue that it is time to revisit the system, its relationship with AWS and the presentation of information to the driver. And it is worth remembering that when it comes to reacting correctly to signals, the reliability of our drivers exceeds the predictions of the human factors experts.
West Coast decision
Shortly after the September column appears in print Network Rail is going to have to make a decision of considerable commercial, political and reputational importance. Network Rail’s licence requires it to publish timetables in time for advance tickets to be sold, and reservations accepted.12 weeks in advance – referred to a T-12 in the trade. In the case of the timetable change on December 14, T-12 starts on September 21.
And this year the timetable change sees the introduction of the Virgin High Frequency timetable on the West coast Main Line. So with the West Coast Route Modernisation still underway Network Rail has to decide whether it will be completed in time and if so, whether to call T-12 on the VHF.
To launch T-12 Network Rail has to be confident not only that the work will be completed over the next three months but that operating performance will, by then, be high enough to absorb the inevitable dip in punctuality when a radical timetable change is introduced. And in Period 4 just gone (June and July) Virgin Trains’ PPM was only 77.3. It is also worth mentioning that while we call it the VHF, the change is critical to other TOCs using the WCML which have based rolling stock utilisation and driver training programmes on the new timetable.
Assuming the August Bank Holiday possessions go to plan, T-12 will be on. But before pressing the button Network Rail will also have to convince the Office of Rail Regulation that it can deliver.
History tells us that radical timetable chances, especially with a step up in frequency can take time to settle in. So a positive decision on T-12 could be conditional on a ‘soft start’ to the VHF. This could see the full peak services starting in January, but with service levels reduced between the peaks to give all those concerned time to catch up on any maintenance work and prepare for the evening peak.
Not surprisingly reliability is what is concerning Virgin. Comparing the first quarters of 2006-07 and 2008-09 VWC’s own delay minutes have fallen from 20150 to 14995, but those attributed to Network Rail have increased from 84385 to 131620 – a rise of 37%. Given the heavy political pressure to introduce the new timetable I reckon T-12 will be Network Rail’s biggest decision since it took over.
Roger’s blog.
Well, guess what? As I sat there enjoying my breakfast coffee on 2 August what should come through the post but a letter from Network Rail. And guess what? My application to become a public member had been turned down for the third year running. Are they trying to tell me something?
If any subscribers would like to join 2008 Salon des Refusées please drop me an e-mail. One reader who was rejected last year was personally invited to reapply this year – only to be rejected again. More in next month’s columns of Network Rail Governance.
Meanwhile, at the third time of asking Transport Secretary Ruth Kelly’s ‘get to know you’ drinks party finally took place – although one unkind soul asked if I was going to her farewell party.
It was a strange event, no officials other than press officers, no ministers, just Ruth. When she got round to the railway press I congratulated her on her U-turn on the electrification policy. ‘It was published three weeks after I arrived’, she explained in mitigation. After I mentioned that her pro-electrification speech had killed off the diesel IEP she decided it was getting a bit heavy and moved on.
Next day I was off to Sheffield for the Tram Train briefing. As I walked past the trailing power car at St Pancras there was the stirring noise from the engine room that signifies start up. The started smoothly and all without any smoke at all – only a heat haze above the exhaust pipe showing that internal combustion was taking place. I know I’m the founder member of the VP185 fan club, but that start was a stand back in amazement moment.
There were a couple of minor events in the first week in August.
On the Tuesday I gave a talk on Thameslink and CrossRail to a local retired businessmen’s club. These events are always great fun. The next day I went up to London to help with the planning of major conference. While a professional conference attendee and occasional speaker, this was the first time I have been involved with things like topic and speaker selection.
It’s now pretty quiet until September, so I hope to fit in some overdue factory visits plus some even more overdue administration and the odd day out. And also continuing developing ideas for a regular blog.
Roger