Other than the 2007 study by WS Atkins for the Rail Safety & Standards Board in 2007, no one has considered electrification since 1981. Atkins had looked at the economic case effectively treating routes in isolation, when network benefits as the wires roll onward make a big difference to the overall case. 

ATOC has commissioned Chris Stokes, a heavy hitter in British Rail days and now a consultant, to evaluate electrification in the 21^st Century.  This study concentrates on electrification’s ability to deliver a more cost effective railway. Benefits include reduced energy consumption and lower maintenance, leasing and variable track access costs.  As a pure financial analysis it does not allow for such potential, but currently intangible, benefits such as emissions, environmental issues and long term fuel costs and availability.

To give you a flavour of the work, here’s the results of the case study with the highest benefit: cost ratio.

Assumes electric Intercity Express trains

At the conference Chris said that the results had made him ‘pinch myself and want rigorous verification’.  When we spoke early in May, feedback from respected railway colleagues meant that he was now ‘pretty damn confident’ that the numbers were right.

Network

One of the strengths of the current situation is that there is a strong correlation between the results of several separate studies. The title of the presentation by Andrew Coombes of Network Rail was ‘Making electrification work’.  It covered work for the Network Rail Utilisation Strategy (RUS), the ‘master RUS’ that sits above the all the route RUS.  

Network Rail is developing a detailed line-by-line business case for an electrification programme based on maximising the number of ‘electrified customers’. Andrew said that at this high level he was getting ‘some good fit’ with Chris Stokes’ work. 

In fact Network Rail is even more ambitious than Chris. For example, the Berks & Hants route from Reading to Taunton was on a map in the presentation, as was Reading – Basingstoke and even Chiltern. 

U-turn

After all this excitement Derek Chapman, DfT Rail Deputy Director Technical & Professional took the podium to confirm that the department’s thinking on electrification had ‘moved on’ in the last year.   

A lot of what Derek said was a restatement of the blindingly obvious which somehow the White Paper had overlooked 10 months ago. I could be unkind, but so many people have said ‘you won’t rub their noses in it, will you?’ that I’ll just quote, approvingly, from Derek’s last slide. ‘The strong probability is that the case for electrification will continue to improve into the foreseeable future’. Yes, of course we all know that, but this is strong stuff by civil service standards.   

However, optimism must be tempered.  As nearly every speaker at the conference emphasised, two sets of costs have to come down to ensure a really convincing case for electrification. 

Atkins assumed £550,000-£600,000 per single track km for installation costs. Chris Stokes worked on £500,000/stkm. Network Rail is aiming for £400,000/stkm.  But installation is only part of the cost equation. Compensation to train operators for disruption, must come down dramatically. That will depend on getting back to keeping the trains running while the wires are going up. Not easy, but doable.

On 5 June the Office of Rail Regulation will publish its draft determination of Network Rail’s income for CP4.  I was told last week by ORR Chairman Chris Bolt that it will be a ‘white paper’ rather than a ‘Green paper’.  In other words it will be consultation on what is going to happen: discussion on what might happen is over. 

Network Rail’s recently updated Strategic Business Plan (SBP) has reduced the Company’s view of what it needs to spend over the five years of CP4 by a claimed £1.35billion.  At £28billion total expenditure is now close to ORR’s high estimate of £27.86billion.  But that is until you note a new line in the Table I publish. This lists   ‘optional investments’ which Network Rail considers more ‘essential’ than ‘nice to have’.  These would increase gross expenditure to £29.25billion. 

I know the column has been warning about the gap between the HLOS and the SoFA for months now.  Come 5 June we will know just how hard ORR is going to squeeze Network Rail.  Given the uncompromising tone of its Updated SBP on expenditure I would not be surprised if a frustrated Network Rail referred a parsimonious ORR Determination to the Competition Commission.   

There have been so many tributes to Gwyneth Dunwoody that I have kept mine short.  She valued brevity at her Transport Committee hearings and I would not like her world weary drawl saying ‘that’s all very nice, Mr Ford, but perhaps you could get to the point’.  And the point is that for grasp of detail, integrity, an acerbic wit and a respect for the railways she had no equal in politics.  I always felt that she humoured me, as a sort of licensed trouble maker, but on the two occasions I appeared before her Committee I was on my very, very, best behaviour. 

It’s been a rewarding month since the last e-Preview. My paper on trains for Thameslink and Crossrail at the London Rail Conference survived the presence of the consultant responsible for the Thameslink spec among the delegates.  Vernon Barker was in fine form at the Fourth Friday Club.  And the following week it was Captain Deltic’s ultimate day out in Leeds to see Terry Miller’s son name an IC125 T C B Miller MBE.   

Terry was the CM&EE who led the HSDT project in the early 1970s and the naming was the result of a long campaign.  Thanks to power car owners Porterbrook and operators East Midlands Trains for making it happen.  I also got the chance to present a champagne challenge to Neville Hill Depot for being first to get an IC125 fleet over 10,000 miles per casualty.  There’s an article on how Neville Hill has developed its IC125 fleet in the June Magazine.

Appropriately the journey to Leeds was in an unrefurbished NXEC IC125.  A bit scruffy inside but still riding like a dream.  BUT, did you know NXEC don’t stock Danish pastries in the buffet?   

Then it was heads down with some serious writing before a working breakfast with ORR last week ahead of the Determination.  This coming week the focus will be on getting some analysis in hand before for a week’s holiday on the Northumbrian coast.  Then it’s June, where the first week alone has the Rail Freight Conference and the ORR’s draft Determination.  The following week there’s a conference on wheel rail interaction and I have a backlog of factory visits building up. 

As a taster for next month, Appendix C to the Intercity Express Programme Train Technical Specification has now arrived.  You won’t believe it – or perhaps you will.

 Roger