It’s another blockbuster column this month, as usually happens when an official document is published and I try to make sense of it. Having been promised it ‘by January’ the Department for Transport’s Rolling Stock Plan (RSP) was published on 30 January and my attempts to analyse and explain a pretty opaque document dominate the March Informed Sources. And for the first time in living memory I am quite pleased with an incomplete piece of work which is approximately right, as opposed to precisely wrong
If you have downloaded the RSP from the DfT website (http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/rail/pi/rollingstock/rollingstockplan) be sure to ignore the table, in which the numbers add up to exactly 1300 vehicles. This is largely meaningless since the numbers in the columns give the net additional vehicles for each TOC – both new and cascaded.
For examples the 40 ‘additional vehicles’ for c2c are cascaded Class 321s from
And so on. My approach has been to produce two tables, one showing both cascaded and new vehicles, the other lists the new trains required.
Getting that far has not been easy, involving around a dozen detailed questions to DfT and much comparison of notes with Informed Sources. One of the problems is defining ‘new’. For example, the new trains ordered for the London Rail concession (London Overground) contribute to the cascade but don’t count in the 1300 vehicles which fall within the five years (2009-2014) covered by the HLOS. There are also some gaps in my table, such as the First Great Western new DMUs. My current identified total is 1224 new vehicles, but expect this to change.
In the RSP, DfT Rail has a note on how each franchise is affected and I provide a detailed commentary, in each case trying to explain how the text translates into the numbers in the tables.
So while it is far from perfect I believe that this analysis is about a close as you can get, given that DfT Rail is still in discussions with the Train Operators and Network Rail. What I found interesting was that some TOCs were still in the dark, despite the extra vehicles having been announced back in March 2007.
By far the most complex issue in the RSP is the provision of rolling stock for Phase 1 of Thameslink in 2011. As a result it has its own coverage.
Between now and completion of the first phase, Thameslink will need more dual voltage trains. It was going to get the 15 dual voltage Class 377s from South Central, plus the 12 additional units being delivered by Bombardier. Now, it seems, Thameslink will get 11 of the 15 plus the 12 in build.
To ‘backfill’ the transferred Class 377s DfT Rail fancies moving Class 465s across from South Eastern. Or, they might ask Bombardier to add some more dual voltage Class 377s on the end of the current order. A decision is imminent
Then there’s Phase 1 itself, of Key Output 1 in the jargon. According to the RSP FCC is to get a net increase of 256 vehicles. If you subtract the cascaded Class 321s and 313s, plus the 23 Class 377s you are left with 100 vehicles for KO1.
But do the 23 Class 377s count in the RSP’s cascade? I think they do. But if they don’t, and I am waiting on DfT Rail for clarification, then FCC get 192 vehicles.
Confused? Don’t worry, we all are. Anyway, whether it’s 100 or 192, DfT Rail reckons the answer is to convert existing Class 377s for dual voltage operation and backfill with new trains for South Central.
Moving on to the completion of Thameslink in 2015, this will require ‘up to’ 1300 new vehicles. Obviously some of these will have to be delivered in 2013 and 2014, but they don’t count in the 1300. These are expected the first examples of DfT Rail’s New Generation EMU – which shares many of the aspirations of the Intercity Express Programme.
According to the RSP ‘it is possible’ that these next generation vehicles could be delivered earlier, ‘possibly by 2010-2011’. This sort of unreality is why Informed Sources will be sponsoring the Pink Porkers Aerial Display Team from 2009!
Having mentioned the New Generation EMU, I thought it worth giving readers a run down on DfT Rail’s thinking on its New Generation Multiple Unit (NGMU) family described in last year’s Rail Technical Strategy. There are four basic duties, Outer suburban, Regional and Rural
Inner and outer suburban electric units are the primary target for the new kit. DfT Rail says that these are being taken forward with the rail industry, but even Informed Sources are pretty much in the dark.
For regional duties, diesel or bi-mode units will be the norm. Energy-storage technology combined with regenerative braking will improve energy efficiency, or so it says. There is a nice touch in aspiration for the rural version which should provide ‘good panoramic views’. Which reminds me, I really must get up to speed with ‘tram–train’.
One of DfT Rail’s concerns in the RSP has been to avoid TOCs buying new trains in expensive penny packets. Well, you could have fooled me. By my standards the 120 new vehicles for Greater Anglia (or ‘one’ if you must) and South Eastern’s 110 vehicles are pretty small beer.
DfT Rail has laid down a jargon riddled procurement process for the 1300 vehicles which I describe in detail. To cut to the chase, the table shows the sequence. Note that the involvement of the Manufacturers and ROSCOs has to be inferred.
Procurement sequence Solution Design – Network Rail, TOC, DfT DfT asks TOC for Proposal. TOC prices proposal Comparator development/update – DfT and advisors Evaluation – DfT and advisors Negotiation and Franchise Agreement amendment – DfT & TOC Implementation – TOC & Network Rail
As the theme of the RSP is unreality, note that DfT Rail expects to complete this process in three and a half months. Note also that it has taken a year and two years respectively for TransPennine Express and Virgin West Coast to get nowhere with their simple lengthening schemes.
I’ve been banging on for some time now about the Government’s ITSO smartcard initiative in general and its application to the Underground and National Rail in particular. Readers may have wondered why I was barking up this tree – well, now that the theoretical is becoming practical all should become clear and you are already well informed.
For example, starting with SWT, all recent franchisees have signed up to implement ITSO Smart Cards, which I believe have limited applicability outside major conurbations, to very optimistic timeframes. In parallel, with a few exceptions, National Rail operators with stations in London Zones 1-6 are still haggling over the introduction of Oyster.
All this comes to a head in SWT. As the first operator to have smart card commitments in its franchise agreement I thought I would check these commitments in detail, only to find them redacted from the Franchise Agreement. A Freedom of Information Request was subsequently rejected.
More seriously, I then discovered that DfT is refusing to tell TfL what is going on at SWT. Which makes my journalistic thumbs twitch even more.
As of now SWT’s smartcard commitment appears to be limited to accepting Oyster cards from next January. Network Rail, which is putting in the new gateline at
Despite my new year’s resolution to get out more, it’s been a relatively quiet month. I’ve become involved in a Young Engineer’s quiz, organised by ATOC and we had a fun meeting developing questions at the end of January. This was followed by the Fourth Friday Club meeting where the speaker was Brian Raven of Heathrow Express.
By the time you read this I will have had an interview with Network Rail Chief Engineer Andrew McNaughton on the new modular approach – for everything from Alan Williams’ new station to interlockings.
This week
Next week there’s a heavy technical session on fasteners and vibration and then we’re into March where the highlights will be Infrarail, probably the opening day, the young engineers’ quiz, a conference on intelligent trains and, hopefully, a Hayabusa footplate.
That’s all for now
Roger