INFORMED SOURCES e-Preview April 2007
First of all, an apology for the formatting fun and games in the March
e-Preview. We’re still working with our mailing house to bottom how
some of the text became struck through. If there are formatting problems
in future, please remember that there is a direct link to the text
on-line at the top of this e-mail
And second, congratulation to reader Peter Bramhill who became the
1000th subscriber to e-Preview.
Lambrigg will test RAIB
IEP procurement starts
Technical specification emerges
ORR to curb Network Rail’s income
Not surprisingly, the Pendolino derailment at Lambrigg on 23 February
leads off this month’s Informed Sources. With the cause rapidly
identified as points failure, I have focused on the condition of the points
immediately before Pendolino 390 033 arrived at the Lambrigg Ground
Frame.
This was not as easy as it seems, because the Interim Report by the
Rail Accident Investigation Branch was deliberately vague on the subject.
I say ‘deliberately’ because when I asked for clarification, it was
refused.
No matter, because, as in the case of the similar derailment at
Potters Bar, you will find that Informed Sources has what I believe is the
most detailed and accurate description of the condition of points 2B at
Lambrigg. There is also a technical analysis of how they could have
ended up with both switch blades against their respective stock rails.
Key to the accident was the absence of the intermediate stretcher bar.
It looks as though the removal of the intermediate stretcher allowed
the left hand switch blade to bow, reducing the width of the flangeway.
With 30,000 wheels a weeks squeezing through the narrowed flangeway at
up to 95 mile/h, the resulting vibration acting on the remaining
stretchers could equally cause metal fatigue or loosen nuts – both of which
were present. But when was the Intermediate Stretcher removed?
What we do know is that the New Measurement Train (NMT) made a routine
inspection run over Points 2B on 21 February. Subsequent examination
of the video recording showed that the intermediate stretcher was
already missing, but that the nuts were in place on the other stretchers.
Lambrigg 2B had its last monthly inspection on 3 February, with the
next weekly visual inspection made as scheduled on 11 February. But RAIB
says that ‘there is evidence’ that the visual inspection scheduled for
February 18 did not take place.
There are two possible scenarios leading up to the derailment, both of
which I find Lambrigg more worrying that Potters Bar.
One is that the intermediate stretcher was missing for some time and
that its absence was not reported during inspections. Bolts being
loosened by the vibration could have been tightened up. This should show up
in the audit trail of inspection records. But if the stretcher bar
went missing some time after the 11 February inspection the nuts would
have had to vibrate loose very quickly.
IEP under way
It looks as though 2007 is going to be the year of the Intercity
Express Programme (IEP) or HST2 as was. On 8 March the Department for
Transport issued the formal Notice in the Official Journal of the European
Union (OJEU inviting expressions of interest in supplying between 500 and
2000 vehicles. It looks as though DfT Rail intends to place a single
contract for the ‘package’ to design, build, maintain and finance the
IEP fleet.
While the immediate requirement is the replacement of the Great Western
IC125s from 2014 onward, the aim is to make IEP the standard InterCity
and Inter-Urban train. There will be at least three versions,
electric, ‘self propelled’ and dual-mode. ‘Self Propelled’ is the politically
correct way of avoiding the ‘D’ word. After all, at some time in the
future fuel cells might challenge internal combustion.
Contract award is ‘anticipated’ in ‘early 2009’ and there will be a
pre-series build for service testing on the East Coast Main Line before
production deliveries start. Can I at this point clarify a detail in
the column on the test fleet?
DfT Rail says that the pre-series trains will cover 10 diagrams, but
internal documents refer to five diagrams. Both are right. The
pre-Series trains will be supplied as 10 five-car half-sets which will be
marshalled as 10-car units. So 10 half diagrams equals full five diagrams.
Some engineers are going to have fun because the pre-series test fleet
will cover all power options – electric power car at each end, diesel
power car at each end and dual mode, with diesel at one end and electric
at the other. No hybrid, as yet.
Light weight/low power
Continuing IEP coverage the column also includes a quick run through
the IEP specification. The basic building block is a 26 metre long coach
on a 9 tonne axle load. End vehicles will carry the power equipment
and will feed traction motors along the train. The axle load will be
15 tonnes compared with 17.5 tonnes for the Class 43 IC125 power car.
Maximum train length will be 260 metres. Another late change from the
article is that 140 mile/h capability is no longer ruled out, provided
it doesn’t add weight or complexity. Acceleration is expected to match
a Voyager.
Something that concerns me with IEP is the belief that diesel and
electric traction, and fuel cells too, can be ‘plug & play’ in the IEP
power cars. But it ain’t like that as I will explain in the May column.
Meanwhile if anyone has the weight for the 16 cylinder MTU 4000 Series,
as in the re-engined IC125 power cars, could they let me know please?
I can’t find the spec sheet.
PR 2008 starts
After all this train stuff it’s back to the hard yakka of the HLOS and
the SoFA. On 28 February, the Office of Rail Regulation issued the
statutory notice starting Periodic Review 2008. What this means is that
the Secretary of State for Transport and the Scottish ministers have to
give ORR their High Level Output Specifications (HLOS) by 31 July, by
law.
In parallel they will also have to provide what are now called their
‘Statements of Public Financial Resources Available’. This is the full
title of what started out as Statement of Funds Available and retains
the original abbreviation SoFA.
So the clock is now running on what I consider to be the most critical
decisions on the railway for many years. Which is why I have given it
so much space in the column in recent months, because it is vital we
all understand the implications of what is going on.
ORR also published its ‘Advice to ministers and framework for setting
access charges’ which contains its estimate of how much money Network
Rail will require for operations, maintenance and renewal (OMR), plus
some enhancements, in the next Control period (CP4) which runs for five
years from 1 April 2009.
Just as I was deep into the ORR’s 196 pages of advice, the IEP OJEU
came out. I had to decide whether readers would rather I continued with
some weapons grade regulatory analysis or switched to detailed
description of the plans for the new train. No contest!
So what you get this month is a simple (!) breakdown of ORR’s latest
estimates of how much money Network Rail will need to operate, maintain
and renew the Network, with a bit of enhancement thrown in.
In fact, half of the estimated enhancement expenditure in CP4 (£2.6
billion) is taken up by Thameslink. Six major schemes promoted by
Transport Scotland add another £700 million. Further schemes, including 18
major projects, each estimated at £50 million plus, make up the
remaining 36% of estimated enhancement expenditure.
That is not a lot of activity over five years. It looks to me to that
instead of playing catch-up for the lost years of Railtrack, the
industry is still treading water at best, since passenger growth looks set to
keep on outpacing capacity enhancements.
Talking of which, the Government’s heavily leaked extra 1000 vehicles
includes some double counting – such as the pre-series IEP trains and
the Pendolino lengthening. It is also dependent on the SoFA being big
enough and we’ll be lucky to see serious deliveries before 2012.
Roger’s blog
It’s been one long social whirl since the last e-Preview. As trailed,
I had a get-to-know-you meeting with Transport Minister Tom Harris. I
have seen a lot of Ministers come and go, but Tom seems a useful bloke
and ready to engage in discussion which is rare with politicians these
days.
Then it was the Railtex exhibition – thanks for the tea coffer and
sarnies - and the next day I took my turn at helping the media cover
Lambrigg. But the next week was my moment of glory when I took part in a
rail strategy round table chaired by the Secretary of State for
Transport.
Just to liven things up, the day before the round table I circulated a
paper on what the railway should cost to all participants. ‘A nice
try’ was the verdict of a smiling top Sir Humphrey. You can find it in
Pro Stuff (link) if you want to read what I said.
Petition update
When I got back to the office after the round table I logged on to see
how the Electrify! petition to the Prime Minister was getting on. The
counter read 1999 and when I refreshed next it was on 2000.
As I type this the petition has just passed the 2500 mark – halfway to
the target. So, if you haven’t done so already, please sign
http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/Electrify/ and if you have signed, and there
was a gratifying jump in numbers when the last e-Preview came out,
please pass the link onto friends and colleagues.
After all that dashing around it was time for some serious writing to
meet the Editor’s deadline for Informed Sources. Then it was time to
fire up Powerpoint and prepare some visual aids for a presentation to the
South East Section of the Institute of Railway Operators.
While the paper was on the HLOS and the SoFA, IROSE is always one of
the best informed audiences and the Q&A session afterwards is invariably
thought provoking and lots of fun. Picking up a point I had made on
investment someone asked whether there was scope for bringing back
mechanical signalling.
‘Portsmouth?’ I asked and the room erupted in a storm of laughter.
Clearly the operating profession is less than impressed by their
signalling colleagues.
That’s all for now, except to remind you that Network Rail Chief
Executive John Armitt is the guest speaker at the coming Fourth Friday Club.
But you’ll need to move fast to get a ticket. Richard hyperlink to FFC
please.
Roger
