Informed Sources e-Preview November 2006
There’s plenty of variety in the November Informed Sources, but before
getting into the detail, thanks for the response to last month’s ‘Ten
decisions where the industry struggles’. ‘Ten decisions’ obviously
caught your interest and many readers provided fresh background detail in
their replies. Most of the issues will run and run.
Before I start, could I mention that I will be away from the office
this week trying to get some holiday. I always try to reply to e-mails
from readers as they come in, but for this e-Preview it will be next
week.
Railway funding becoming even more opaque
Maglev crash poses ageless questions
Safety at stations – old lessons forgotten?
Energy efficiency – rail playing catch-up
Captain Deltic’s traction and rolling stock round-up
This month opens with the latest in my long running series of attempts
to nail down the cost of the railway to the taxpayer. It gets harder
every year, as items of expenditure disappear off DfT Rail’s budget.
This was highlighted when the Government published a new set of figures
earlier this year, which when compared with my own data base didn’t
compute. So this month’s column starts with a table comparing the
official figures with my calculations.
My table covers the five years of the current Regulatory Control Period
(CP3), which ends on 31 March 2009. What gives it extra interest is
that it gives the true cost for the 2007-08 financial year which will, of
course, be the year on which the Government will base its Statement of
Funds Available (SoFA) as part of the 2008 Periodic Review.
Analysis showed that nearly all the discrepancies are down to
devolution. For example, franchising support for Scotland and Wales has
disappeared from DfT Rail’s budget. Similarly, the Scottish Parliament has
taken over responsibility for Network Rail’s grants.
Freight grants, have also been transferred to another Division within
DfT and have vanished from the official figures. And the freight
component of the Minimum Usage Charge to paid to Eurotunnel, disappears from
30 November this year, although it was never explicitly listed.
When I added back these missing millions, DfT Rail’s totals for 2007-08
fall into line – if that’s not too arrogant! Apart from the SoFA,
2007-08 is important for another reason. It will be the first year without
heavy expenditure on the Channel Tunnel Rail Link.
So we, and the Treasury, will know the cost to the taxpayer of the
steady state railway. And the answer is about £5 billion a year.
If you add in fares and freight revenue you get a total income of £10
billion a year. In addition to the massive table, I also publish a
simple diagram produced by Mark Lambirth, DfT Rail’s Director of Rail
Strategy & Finance showing how this income is spent. I think you will find
it enlightening.
MagLev
With the Conservatives getting excited about MagLev for the UK, and DfT
Rail doing some serious analysis, the fatal accident on the Transrapid
test track in September set me thinking about the practical
considerations of long distance MagLev operation. Transrapid argue that because
the vehicles run on an elevated structure they can’t hit anything.
However, high levels of maintenance are required to sustain the smooth
guideway required by MagLev and, of course, if a high speed line were
to be commercial it would have to run at close headways to achieve the
ridership and revenue. There will be risk of collision.
For technical readers I have done some sums on the collision energy
involved. Crashworthiness, as in cab-end crumple zones is, largely
irrelevant in high energy collisions, what counts is the ability of the
vehicle body to retain its structural integrity and protect the passengers
inside. The Transrapid cars are built to aircraft standards.
I also float the possibility that derailment in an accident helps to
dissipate energy. Colwich was a good example. But if a vehicle is
locked onto a guideway, all collision forces have to be met end-on.
All this leads into the issue of approvals for a UK Transrapid line.
In this context the column also explores some issues about emergency
evacuation, drawing on the reports of the Test Track accident. The
conclusion is that were Government to fund a MagLev high speed line, safety
regulation would present a major challenge.
Rolling at Royston
I can almost guarantee that this next short item is going to get me I
into trouble. Early on September morning at Royston as a London-bound
train was departing a car rolled out of the car park across the
platform, into the side of the train. Commuters helped station staff push the
car back into the car-park.
Given that had this happened just before an express service came
through the air could have been full of flying metal, I asked RAIB and HMRI
what they were doing about it. The answer, from both, was ‘nothing’.
Given how keen RSSB is on ‘precursors’, that is, events which could
have been a nasty accident but weren’t, this surprised me. So I went in
search of earlier precursors and found one featured in L T C Rolt’s
famous ‘Red for danger’ dating from 1898.
I also checked with rail safety guru Stan Hall on whether there was
anything in the Regulations aimed at stopping such entirely predicable
event. And the "Railway Safety Principles and Guidance, Part 2, Stations"
(HSE/HMRI) 1996 does indeed take account of the effect of gravity on
something rolling across the platform.
I conclude by asking why HMRI and RAIB are, apparently, so relaxed
about Royston in 2006? Stroppy letters expected.
Channel Tunnel freight crisis over?
One of the Top Ten immediate issues was the withdrawal of Government
subsidy from Channel Tunnel freight services from the end of November.
The November column leaves EWS International waiting for a decision
from the Inter-Governmental Commission, having made a formal
complaint on 11 September. The IGC acknowledged the complaint on 19
September now has to ‘take a decision and take action to remedy the
situation within a maximum period of two months from receipt of all
relevant information’.
However, one of the aims of e-Preview is to update stories where events
have moved on since going to press. And, as of today, while a
conclusion has yet to be reached in the negotiations between EWSI and
Eurotunnel on a new scale of financially viable charges, EWSI is sufficiently
encouraged by the progress made to be writing to its international
customers saying that services will, after all, continue after December 1.
Energy again
Yes, I know it is a bee in the Informed Sources hard hat, but improving
energy efficiency is becoming increasingly important for the rail
industry. So important, that ORR highlighted the ‘significant increases’
in fuel and power costs in its first quarterly National Rail Review
and warned that the recent very rapid rises are placing a ‘considerable
strain’ on train operators.
Of course, you all knew that. Similarly, picking up on this column’s
long running battle with lardbutt multiple units, ORR says that the
development of more fuel-efficient trains has become a higher priority.
Unfortunately it could be ‘many years’, before new energy efficient
stock ‘has a widespread impact’.
But regenerative braking is back on the agenda big-time, with Network
Rail hoping to have all the AC network regen-capable next year. And
Network Rail has also got in on the lardbutt act and I take a look at some
of the solutions proposed.
Longer Pendolinos?
In the September column I highlighted the need for a prompt decision on
whether to lengthen the Virgin West Coast Pendolinos to 10 or 11 cars.
The good news is that the Notification to Proceed for the critical
aluminium extrusions can wait until 1 January. Even better, the first
bodyshells would be ready by the end of 2007 if this timescale is met.
According to Informed Sources, DfT Rail has to make a decision on
whether to reinstate the Virgin West Coast franchise or keep on with the
current management contract, before the Invitations to Tender can be
issued for the remapped Cross Country and Central Trains franchises.
Fingers crossed, there could be some good news shortly.
Roger’s Ramblings
It’s been a lively month, starting with a day in London catching up
with Hong Kong MTR’s capabilities and UK aspirations in the morning and
getting a briefing on ITSO and Oyster smart cards from the main line
operators’ perspective in the afternoon.
A fortnight later there was a cracking evening meeting at the
Institution of Railway Signal Engineers where past-President Tony Howker
revisited his 1988 paper ‘Have we forgotten the driver’. More on this in a
future issue.
Next day it was off to Docklands at the invitation of DfT
Rail who were co Sponsors of the Intelligent Transport Systems
Conference and Exhibition at ExCel. The main object of the visit was to catch
up with ITSO, but on the DfT stand there was a fascinating video
presentation about the emerging ;long term strategy for the railways. More
of that in January.
Finally, last week I went back to my spiritual home, the former
English Electric Traction factory at Strand Road Preston. While the new
train market has collapsed, TLS Preston has carved out a new role. This
was another of those visits that remind me why I write about railways for
a living. Much more of this in our January Traction & Rolling Stock
issue.
Always, feedback to roger@alycidon.com.
